Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T15:43:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
F8 0xf8ab…13a1 sports 406 markets active 0h ago coverage 111d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$8,931 (-4%) realized −$9,019 · open +$88
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate59%238W / 167L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$586per market
Trades / day22.7pace
Fees−$1,535est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$438now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,101
7 days+$2,921
14 days+$2,918
30 days+$436
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$6,536
other 1% −$2,916
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -0.9% -10.3% 89% 33% -5.6%
≤30d 79 -15.6% -23.6% 63% 34% -9.0%
≤90d 345 -7.4% -16.3% 58% 38% -11.9%
all 405 -6.7% -15.6% 59% 38% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.7 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.6% 38% -13.1%
10% -23.6% 26% -21.4%
15% ← realistic here -31.0% 20% -29.0%
20% -37.8% 15% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$561) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$102 vs −$214 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$438
Realized−$9,019
Unrealized+$88
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses238 / 167
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$1,535
Open positions1
Markets (closed)405 / 406
History coverage111d
Avg bet$586
Trades / day22.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 405 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bad Homburg Open: Iga Swiatek vs Emma Navarro Emma Navarro 70¢ 88¢ $350 $438 +$88 (+25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Emiliana Arango Jun 24 $9,514 +$386 +4%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jelena Ostapenko vs Panna Udvardy Jun 24 $4,980 +$20 +0%
Bad Homburg Open: Anna Kalinskaya vs Gabriela Ruse Jun 24 $950 +$50 +5%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Carol Young Suh Lee Jun 23 $212 +$37 +17%
Mallorca Championships: Luciano Darderi vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 23 $2,506 +$494 +20%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Harriet Dart Jun 23 $2,100 +$544 +26%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Sara Bejlek vs Laura Siegemund Jun 23 $836 −$800 -96%
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens Jun 23 $800 +$199 +25%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Yexin Ma vs Erika Andreeva Jun 23 $10,750 +$31 +0%
Mallorca Championships: Damir Dzumhur vs Vit Kopriva Jun 23 $9,500 +$490 +5%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jasmine Paolini vs Tatjana Maria Jun 23 $450 −$350 -78%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $1,407 +$43 +3%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 19 $950 +$50 +5%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $998 +$52 +5%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon Jun 19 $11,010 +$906 +8%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $209 +$29 +14%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 18 $850 +$140 +16%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Eva Lys Jun 18 $9,400 +$600 +6%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $8 +$1 +15%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $14 +$1 +10%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $6 +$1 +16%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $5 $0 +8%
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 10 $3 +$3 +98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $3 −$3 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 05 $3 $0 -3%
Tyler: Adam Walton vs Andres Martin Jun 04 $3 $0 -2%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $398 −$398 -100%
Birmingham: Alexandra Eala vs Alina Charaeva Jun 04 $351 +$48 +14%
ODI Series West Indies vs Sri Lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 04 $252 +$98 +39%
Connecticut Sun vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 03 $225 +$24 +11%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $400 −$400 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $140 −$106 -76%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $484 −$200 -41%
Birmingham: Tristan Schoolkate vs Arthur Fery Jun 02 $90 +$10 +11%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $100 +$110 +110%
Foggia: Alice Tubello vs Carole Monnet Jun 02 $90 +$9 +10%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $100 +$12 +12%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 02 $100 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $100 −$100 -100%
Heilbronn: Max Houkes vs Emilio Nava Jun 01 $7 +$5 +67%
Heilbronn: Lorenzo Giustino vs Marko Topo Jun 01 $219 −$218 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 01 $566 −$350 -62%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev May 31 $524 −$28 -5%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $105 +$43 +41%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 31 $100 −$100 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Brandon Nakashima May 30 $905 +$481 +53%
Counter-Strike: magic vs NIP (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 30 $140 −$140 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Diane Parry vs Amanda Anisimova May 30 $380 +$20 +5%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul May 29 $561 −$249 -44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bad Homburg Open: Iga Swiatek vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 70¢ $4 14m
Bad Homburg Open: Iga Swiatek vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 70¢ $331 14m
Bad Homburg Open: Iga Swiatek vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 70¢ $15 14m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Emiliana Arango SELL Caty McNally 99¢ $9,618 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Emiliana Arango SELL Caty McNally 99¢ $10 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Emiliana Arango SELL Caty McNally 99¢ $272 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Emiliana Arango BUY Caty McNally 95¢ $9,514 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Iga Swiatek vs Emma Navarro SELL Emma Navarro 50¢ $1,000 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Iga Swiatek vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 40¢ $407 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Iga Swiatek vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 55¢ $553 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jelena Ostapenko vs Panna Udvardy BUY Panna Udvardy 50¢ $212 3h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jelena Ostapenko vs Panna Udvardy BUY Panna Udvardy 50¢ $2 3h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jelena Ostapenko vs Panna Udvardy BUY Panna Udvardy 50¢ $3 3h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jelena Ostapenko vs Panna Udvardy BUY Panna Udvardy 50¢ $15 3h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jelena Ostapenko vs Panna Udvardy BUY Panna Udvardy 50¢ $11 3h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jelena Ostapenko vs Panna Udvardy BUY Panna Udvardy 50¢ $2 3h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jelena Ostapenko vs Panna Udvardy BUY Panna Udvardy 50¢ $2 3h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jelena Ostapenko vs Panna Udvardy BUY Panna Udvardy 50¢ $1 3h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jelena Ostapenko vs Panna Udvardy BUY Jelena Ostapenko 55¢ $2,645 3h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jelena Ostapenko vs Panna Udvardy BUY Jelena Ostapenko 55¢ $105 3h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jelena Ostapenko vs Panna Udvardy BUY Panna Udvardy 39¢ $794 3h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jelena Ostapenko vs Panna Udvardy BUY Panna Udvardy 39¢ $780 3h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jelena Ostapenko vs Panna Udvardy BUY Panna Udvardy 40¢ $406 3h
Bad Homburg Open: Anna Kalinskaya vs Gabriela Ruse BUY Gabriela Ruse 45¢ $450 4h
Bad Homburg Open: Anna Kalinskaya vs Gabriela Ruse BUY Anna Kalinskaya 50¢ $500 4h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Carol Young Suh Lee SELL Sarah Rakotomanga 82¢ $237 21h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Carol Young Suh Lee SELL Sarah Rakotomanga 82¢ $4 21h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Carol Young Suh Lee SELL Sarah Rakotomanga 82¢ $5 21h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Carol Young Suh Lee SELL Carol Young Suh Lee 35¢ $3 21h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Carol Young Suh Lee BUY Carol Young Suh Lee 25¢ $2 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $437.50 · official $437.50 (match) · 2716 history records