Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:03:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf8a8…be88 crypto 111 markets active 0h ago coverage 45d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,347 (-4%) realized −$1,356 · open +$9
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate38%40W / 65L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$323per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$98est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$5,641now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$135
7 days+$702
14 days−$1,381
30 days−$1,381
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% +$875
sports 24% −$2,425
crypto 1% +$59
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -32.7% -39.1% 41% 35% -6.7%
≤30d 36 -11.4% -19.8% 33% 31% -14.5%
≤90d 105 +1.7% -7.9% 38% 35% -14.7%
all 105 +1.7% -7.9% 38% 35% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 35% -14.7%
10% -16.8% 33% -22.8%
15% -24.8% 28% -30.3%
20% -32.2% 22% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +18% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$104 vs −$87 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$5,641
Realized−$1,356
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses40 / 65
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$98
Open positions6
Markets (closed)105 / 111
History coverage45d
Avg bet$323
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 105 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 Over 68¢ 68¢ $3,630 $3,647 +$17 (+0%)
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $1,152 $1,146 −$6 (-1%)
Michael Olise: 1+ goals Yes 45¢ 46¢ $250 $258 +$8 (+3%)
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Yes 40¢ 36¢ $250 $223 −$27 (-11%)
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Yes 66¢ 70¢ $200 $214 +$14 (+7%)
Michael Olise: 1+ assists Yes 48¢ 49¢ $150 $153 +$3 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 40 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $667 −$34 -5%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $304 +$78 +26%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $4,043 −$18 -0%
Federico Valverde: 1+ goals Jun 22 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $22 −$22 -100%
Gilson Benchimol: 1+ goals Jun 22 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2,824 +$225 +8%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $353 −$353 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5,999 +$640 +11%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $3,993 +$1,823 +46%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $2,114 −$2,062 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $336 −$247 -74%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $698 +$230 +33%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $599 +$420 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $650 +$177 +27%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $500 −$492 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,716 −$1,707 -100%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $31 $0 -0%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $99 +$45 +45%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 13 $40 +$22 +55%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$1 -10%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 $0 -8%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $5 $0 -5%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $5 $0 -1%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 13 $5 −$1 -14%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $10 −$1 -11%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $11 $0 -3%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $15 −$6 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$1 -12%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $20 +$45 +218%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $15 −$1 -6%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $15 +$6 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$10 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET May 22 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 22 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET May 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 14 $5 +$6 +107%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 13 $258 −$255 -99%
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $201 +$32 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET May 13 $11 −$10 -94%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B May 13 $120 +$126 +105%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Texas Rangers May 12 $18 −$18 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5 May 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox May 12 $51 −$28 -55%
CA Belgrano vs. CA Unión: O/U 1.5 May 12 $30 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 12 $30 +$27 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 40¢ $254 1m
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 SELL Under 63¢ $633 4m
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 70¢ $1,009 29m
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 91¢ $1,245 31m
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 68¢ $333 1h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $304 8h
Michael Olise: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $254 8h
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 BUY Under 65¢ $667 8h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 66¢ $202 8h
Michael Olise: 1+ assists BUY Yes 48¢ $152 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 67¢ $1,493 10h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $2,322 10h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 90¢ $2,367 10h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $4,813 20h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 64¢ $2,532 20h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes $10 21h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $12 21h
Gilson Benchimol: 1+ goals BUY Yes $23 21h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 88¢ $1,583 21h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 72¢ $1,311 22h
Federico Valverde: 1+ goals BUY Yes 31¢ $102 23h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 70¢ $1,466 23h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $1,513 23h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $353 25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $2,022 28h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $2,022 28h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $6,638 28h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 90¢ $5,999 31h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $3,993 45h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes $52 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,640.62 · official $5,640.62 (match) · 253 history records