Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:38:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf8a8…48c0 sports 419 markets active 0h ago coverage 278d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1,305 (+1%) realized +$2,670 · open −$1,365
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate63%265W / 153L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$284per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$1,090est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26
7 days+$280
14 days+$280
30 days+$280
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$439
other 2% −$485
crypto 1% −$397
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -13.9% -22.1% 62% 38% -5.0%
≤30d 21 -13.9% -22.1% 62% 38% -5.0%
≤90d 231 -4.5% -13.6% 63% 47% -14.5%
all 418 -2.5% -11.8% 63% 47% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 47% -8.8%
10% -20.2% 33% -17.5%
15% -27.9% 24% -25.5%
20% -35.0% 17% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$81 vs −$137 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

278d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$2,670
Unrealized−$1,365
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses265 / 153
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$1,090
Open positions1
Markets (closed)418 / 419
History coverage278d
Avg bet$284
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 418 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Vitality 62¢ $1,366 $1 −$1,365 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 +3%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $89 −$87 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $132 +$113 +85%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $129 +$64 +50%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $250 −$250 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $79 +$21 +27%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $37 +$19 +52%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $127 +$100 +79%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $139 +$57 +41%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $119 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
World Championships: Latvia vs. Austria Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 15 $87 +$1 +1%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $1,750 +$5 +0%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $1,353 +$217 +16%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $137 +$70 +51%
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Jun 13 $1,086 −$26 -2%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere - Map 3 Winner May 17 $400 +$43 +11%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner May 15 $492 −$25 -5%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 15 $410 −$65 -16%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner May 15 $576 +$104 +18%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs Astralis - Map 2 Winner May 14 $30 +$1 +3%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs paiN - Map 2 Winner May 14 $1,406 −$994 -71%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs BC.Game Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 13 $49 −$49 -100%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 13 $184 −$184 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner May 13 $204 −$204 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs paiN - Map 1 Winner May 13 $150 +$6 +4%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs Astralis - Map 1 Winner May 13 $100 +$25 +25%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner May 13 $1,414 +$315 +22%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 13 $60 +$13 +22%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner May 13 $46 +$2 +3%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Group S May 13 $560 +$33 +6%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 12 $2,434 +$214 +9%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner May 12 $37 +$6 +17%
Valorant: M80 vs Shopify Rebellion Black - Map 2 Winner May 12 $116 +$1 +1%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Group St May 12 $172 +$37 +21%
LoL: Gen.G vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winner May 12 $33 +$4 +14%
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs R2 Esports Club (BO3) - CCT South Amer May 12 $117 −$56 -48%
LoL: Team WE vs Invictus Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 12 $37 −$37 -100%
Valorant: KRÜ Esports vs Evil Geniuses - Map 2 Winner May 12 $52 +$2 +5%
Valorant: Team Liquid vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs May 12 $106 −$7 -6%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner May 12 $187 +$34 +18%
LoL: Conviction vs Blue Otter (BO3) - North American Challengers Leagu May 12 $69 −$69 -100%
Valorant: M80 vs Shopify Rebellion Black - Map 4 Winner May 12 $234 −$234 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 12 $283 −$283 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Heroic (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 12 $762 −$762 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $4 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $7 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $10 28m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 62¢ $561 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 62¢ $13 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 62¢ $23 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 62¢ $16 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 62¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 62¢ $51 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 62¢ $408 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 62¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 62¢ $9 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 62¢ $280 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 36¢ $291 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $299 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 62¢ $597 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 49¢ $204 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 49¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 49¢ $50 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 49¢ $24 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 49¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 49¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 49¢ $310 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 54¢ $140 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 31¢ $79 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 35¢ $37 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 35¢ $38 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 35¢ $1 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 35¢ $26 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 33¢ $6 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.10 · official $1.10 (match) · 2503 history records