Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T19:06:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F8
0xf8a6…456c
sports · 100 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$245 -9%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$246 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY sports specialist
Net worth$36
Realized−$246
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses43 / 54
Est. fees paid−$40
Open positions3
Markets (closed)97 / 100
History coverage43d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%
Chart Positions 3 History 97 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$48
14 days−$372
30 days−$117
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Switzerland 60¢ 62¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Switzerland 35¢ 36¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Switzerland (-3.5) Switzerland 18¢ 18¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Set Handicap: Shnaider (-1.5) vs Chwalinska (+1.5) Shnaider 41¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Vit Kopriva vs Corentin Moutet Corentin Moutet 60¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Prostejov: Alex Molcan vs Vitaliy Sachko Vitaliy Sachko 25¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Dino Prizmic Dino Prizmic 72¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini Juan Manuel Cerundolo 24¢ $71 $0 −$71 (-100%)
Birmingham: Sho Shimabukuro vs Kamil Majchrzak Sho Shimabukuro 38¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Alex Michelsen vs Rafael Jodar Alex Michelsen 53¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Centurion 2: Giles Hussey vs Philip Henning Giles Hussey 38¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Heilbronn: Guy Den Ouden vs Emilio Nava Guy Den Ouden 35¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Quentin Halys vs Alexander Zverev Quentin Halys $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
ITF Cuiaba: Gustavo Ribeiro De Almeida vs Samuel Heredia Samuel Heredia 12¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Prostejov: Hynek Barton vs Taro Daniel Taro Daniel 16¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Matteo Berrettini 63¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Madrid Open: Mirra Andreeva vs Marta Kostyuk Mirra Andreeva 50¢ $90 $0 −$90 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Jaime Faria vs Frances Tiafoe Jaime Faria 39¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Zachary Svajda vs Adam Walton Adam Walton 42¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta Pablo Carreno Busta 23¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Jil Teichmann Jil Teichmann 11¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Jaime Faria Jan-Lennard Struff 38¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Centurion 2: Arda Azkara vs Khololwam Montsi Arda Azkara 46¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev Daniil Medvedev $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Martin Landaluce vs Juan Carlos Prado Juan Carlos Prado $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$22 +109%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $30 −$30 -99%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-2.5) vs Cobolli (+2.5) Jun 07 $41 −$40 -98%
Mensik vs. Zverev: Match O/U 40.5 Jun 05 $4 +$1 +21%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Mensik (+1.5) Jun 05 $7 +$4 +60%
Prostejov: Hynek Barton vs Taro Daniel Jun 05 $2 −$2 -98%
Birmingham: Arthur Fery vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 05 $1 +$1 +101%
Heilbronn: Alejandro Moro Canas vs Henri Squire Jun 05 $1 +$1 +108%
Perugia: Marco Cecchinato vs Timofey Skatov Jun 05 $1 +$1 +128%
Set 1 Winner: Mensik vs Zverev Jun 05 $3 +$1 +32%
Centurion 2: Alexander Donski vs Tuncay Duran Jun 05 $1 +$1 +123%
Heilbronn: Guy Den Ouden vs Emilio Nava Jun 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Prostejov: Alex Molcan vs Vitaliy Sachko Jun 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Centurion 2: Harold Mayot vs Eliakim Coulibaly Jun 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Birmingham: Sho Shimabukuro vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Birmingham: Filippo Romano vs Otto Virtanen Jun 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Centurion 2: Giles Hussey vs Philip Henning Jun 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Centurion 2: Arda Azkara vs Khololwam Montsi Jun 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Tyler: Blaise Bicknell vs Karl Poling Jun 05 $1 +$2 +226%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $0 +$5 +1845%
Will Spain vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 05 $8 +$3 +34%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $1 +$5 +522%
ITF Cuiaba: Gustavo Ribeiro De Almeida vs Samuel Heredia Jun 04 $1 −$1 -97%
ITF Sumter: Malaika Rapolu vs Maria Sholokhova Jun 04 $1 −$1 -98%
ITF Cuiaba: Kaue Noatto vs Carlos Maria Zarate Jun 04 $1 −$1 -97%
Makarska: Kajsa Rinaldo Persson vs Noma Noha Akugue Jun 04 $1 −$1 -97%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 04 $1 $0 -4%
ITF Cuiaba: Salvador Price vs Nick Hardt Jun 04 $1 −$1 -97%
Tyler: Landon Ardila vs Timo Legout Jun 04 $1 −$1 -98%
Tyler: Liam Draxl vs Sebastian Gorzny Jun 04 $1 −$1 -97%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 04 $1 −$1 -97%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 04 $1 −$1 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 04 $1 −$1 -97%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $61 −$60 -99%
Set Handicap: Shnaider (-1.5) vs Chwalinska (+1.5) Jun 04 $71 −$20 -28%
Set Handicap: Kostyuk (-1.5) vs Andreeva (+1.5) Jun 04 $30 +$16 +54%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Jun 04 $30 +$30 +100%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $375 −$320 -85%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Jun 03 $54 +$140 +258%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 03 $30 −$30 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 03 $101 −$100 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $254 −$250 -99%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-2.5) vs Jodar (+2.5) Jun 02 $20 +$7 +32%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Jodar (+1.5) Jun 02 $51 +$33 +65%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $252 +$77 +31%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 02 $30 +$23 +76%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 02 $253 +$23 +9%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 01 $51 +$29 +57%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini Jun 01 $72 −$71 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Madison Keys vs Diana Shnaider Jun 01 $30 +$16 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 96% −$235
other 4% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Switzerland (-3.5) BUY Switzerland 18¢ $5 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Switzerland 35¢ $10 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $20 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 21h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $30 24h
Set Handicap: Zverev (-2.5) vs Cobolli (+2.5) BUY Zverev 27¢ $20 6d
Set Handicap: Zverev (-2.5) vs Cobolli (+2.5) BUY Zverev 39¢ $20 6d
Prostejov: Hynek Barton vs Taro Daniel BUY Taro Daniel 11¢ $1 8d
Birmingham: Arthur Fery vs Rinky Hijikata SELL Arthur Fery 100¢ $2 8d
Heilbronn: Alejandro Moro Canas vs Henri Squire SELL Henri Squire 100¢ $2 8d
Perugia: Marco Cecchinato vs Timofey Skatov SELL Timofey Skatov 100¢ $2 8d
Mensik vs. Zverev: Match O/U 40.5 BUY Under 82¢ $4 8d
Set 1 Winner: Mensik vs Zverev SELL Zverev 100¢ $4 8d
Set 1 Winner: Mensik vs Zverev BUY Zverev 75¢ $3 8d
Centurion 2: Alexander Donski vs Tuncay Duran SELL Alexander Donski 100¢ $2 8d
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Mensik (+1.5) BUY Zverev 62¢ $7 8d
Perugia: Marco Cecchinato vs Timofey Skatov BUY Timofey Skatov 43¢ $1 8d
Prostejov: Hynek Barton vs Taro Daniel BUY Taro Daniel 32¢ $1 8d
Heilbronn: Guy Den Ouden vs Emilio Nava BUY Guy Den Ouden 35¢ $1 8d
Birmingham: Arthur Fery vs Rinky Hijikata BUY Arthur Fery 49¢ $1 8d
Heilbronn: Alejandro Moro Canas vs Henri Squire BUY Henri Squire 47¢ $1 8d
Prostejov: Alex Molcan vs Vitaliy Sachko BUY Vitaliy Sachko 25¢ $1 8d
Centurion 2: Harold Mayot vs Eliakim Coulibaly BUY Eliakim Coulibaly 40¢ $1 8d
Birmingham: Sho Shimabukuro vs Kamil Majchrzak BUY Sho Shimabukuro 38¢ $1 8d
Birmingham: Filippo Romano vs Otto Virtanen BUY Filippo Romano 20¢ $1 8d
Centurion 2: Giles Hussey vs Philip Henning BUY Giles Hussey 38¢ $1 8d
Centurion 2: Alexander Donski vs Tuncay Duran BUY Alexander Donski 44¢ $1 8d
Centurion 2: Arda Azkara vs Khololwam Montsi BUY Arda Azkara 46¢ $1 8d
Will Spain vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 74¢ $8 8d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-04? SELL Yes $6 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+19.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -30.2% -36.8% 33% 33% -57.4%
≤30d 94 +34.8% +22.0% 45% 44% -13.8%
≤90d 97 +31.9% +19.4% 44% 43% -18.0%
all 97 +31.9% +19.4% 44% 43% -18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +19.4% 43% -18.0%
10% +8.0% 40% -25.9%
15% -2.5% 33% -33.1%
20% -12.0% 31% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.50 · official $35.50 (match) · 200 history records