Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:26:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
F8 0xf8a6…495d other 113 markets active 2h ago coverage 404d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$121 (+2%) realized +$346 · open −$225
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate35%35W / 66L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$440now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$41
7 days+$41
14 days+$41
30 days+$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 49% +$1,127
other 33% −$650
politics 8% −$107
world 5% −$213
economics 1% −$60
tech 1% −$12
sports 1% −$27
finance 1% −$45
culture 1% +$70
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-21.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +2.0% -7.7% 62% 50% -5.1%
≤30d 8 +2.0% -7.7% 62% 50% -5.1%
≤90d 8 +2.0% -7.7% 62% 50% -5.1%
all 101 -13.4% -21.7% 35% 33% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.7% 33% -4.0%
10% -29.2% 31% -13.2%
15% -36.0% 26% -21.6%
20% -42.3% 24% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -34% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$24 · ×2.25 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

404d coverage
Net worth$440
Realized+$346
Unrealized−$225
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses35 / 66
Open positions12
Markets (closed)101 / 113
History coverage404d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 101 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gold have the best performance in 2026? Yes 45¢ 31¢ $412 $286 −$126 (-31%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 50¢ 72¢ $20 $29 +$9 (+43%)
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day? Yes 6¢ 13¢ $10 $23 +$13 (+131%)
Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 by December 31, 2026? Yes 48¢ 10¢ $96 $19 −$77 (-80%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 18¢ $13 $18 +$5 (+42%)
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day? Yes 6¢ 10¢ $8 $14 +$6 (+73%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+47%)
US recession by end of 2026? Yes 33¢ 13¢ $33 $13 −$20 (-61%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-20%)
Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-21%)
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $11 $7 −$4 (-39%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $32 $0 −$31 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 43 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 19 $26 −$15 -56%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $35 −$12 -35%
Will October be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? Jun 19 $17 +$7 +41%
Will November be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? Jun 19 $28 +$2 +8%
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? Jun 19 $42 +$14 +33%
Will December be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? Jun 19 $30 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $338 +$82 +24%
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Jun 19 $326 −$41 -13%
Crude Oil all time high by March 31? Mar 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 04 $20 +$60 +300%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Feb 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-11? Feb 12 $5 +$5 +104%
Starmer out by March 31, 2026? Feb 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-02-11? Feb 11 $5 −$5 -100%
First to 5k: Gold or ETH? Jan 26 $162 +$83 +52%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Jan 21 $14 −$4 -29%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-01-17? Jan 17 $5 +$6 +127%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-01-17? Jan 17 $5 +$14 +285%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-01-17? Jan 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-01-17? Jan 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 11 $23 −$23 -100%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 06 $10 +$90 +903%
Maduro leaves Venezuela by March 31? Jan 04 $33 +$27 +82%
Will Gold close above $4000 at the end of 2025? Jan 03 $122 +$166 +136%
Will Gold close between $3900 and $4000 at the end of 2025? Dec 04 $107 −$107 -100%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? Nov 26 $100 +$51 +51%
Will Brighton win on 2025-11-22? Nov 23 $5 +$5 +96%
Will Liverpool vs. Nottingham Forest end in a draw? Nov 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-11-22? Nov 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Clarity Act signed into law in 2025? Nov 11 $30 +$7 +23%
Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-11-09? Nov 10 $4 +$6 +133%
Will Brentford win on 2025-11-09? Nov 10 $5 +$10 +194%
Will Tottenham win on 2025-11-08? Nov 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $150k first? Nov 06 $425 +$131 +31%
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker in 2025? Nov 05 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k or $130k first? Nov 05 $27 +$33 +122%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? Oct 30 $101 −$35 -35%
100% tariff on China in effect by November 1? Oct 22 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Gold close between $3700 and $3800 at the end of 2025? Oct 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Gold close between $3600 and $3700 at the end of 2025? Oct 21 $16 −$11 -68%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Oct 19 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Gold close between $3500 and $3600 at the end of 2025? Oct 16 $10 −$9 -87%
Kraken IPO in 2025? Oct 10 $55 −$46 -84%
Hayden Davis in jail in 2025? Oct 10 $25 −$18 -73%
Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by December 31? Oct 10 $25 +$2 +7%
US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025? Oct 10 $140 −$96 -69%
Will Opensea launch a token by December 31? Oct 08 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-10-05? Oct 05 $6 +$4 +67%
Hyperliquid listed on Coinbase in 2025? Oct 04 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31? Oct 03 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $11 1h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 24¢ $23 1h
Will October be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $24 1h
Will November be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $30 1h
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? SELL Yes 66¢ $56 1h
Will December be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $172 1h
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House SELL Yes 41¢ $285 1h
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $37 39d
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $0 39d
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $4 40d
Will December be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 77d
Will December be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 77d
Will December be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $0 77d
Will December be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 79d
Will December be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 79d
Will December be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 79d
Will December be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $0 79d
Will December be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 80d
Will December be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $0 80d
Will December be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $0 82d
Will December be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 82d
Will December be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 83d
Will December be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 83d
Will December be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $8 83d
Will December be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 84d
Will December be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $0 84d
Will December be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 86d
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House BUY Yes 45¢ $45 87d
Will December be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $0 87d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $439.81 · official $440.46 (match) · 612 history records