Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:17:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf8a6…2b7f other 55 markets active 1h ago coverage 605d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate22%12W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$308per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 81% −$14
politics 11% −$7
other 5% −$16
crypto 1% +$1
sports 1% +$19
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 67% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 13 +16.5% +5.4% 23% 8% -5.8%
≤90d 41 +4.2% -5.7% 22% 10% -9.2%
all 54 +3.0% -6.8% 22% 7% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.8% 7% -9.6%
10% -15.7% 7% -18.3%
15% -23.8% 7% -26.2%
20% -31.3% 7% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$2 · ×2.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

605d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses12 / 42
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)54 / 55
History coverage605d
Avg bet$308
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $140 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $52 $52 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $15 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? Jun 14 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in May? Jun 14 $27 $0 +0%
Will Team Liquid win IEM Cologne Major 2026? May 28 $16 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? May 27 $13 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $15 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $13 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 21 $10 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $79 $0 -0%
Will Zhejiang Zhiye FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $6 +$12 +216%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $10 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $64 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 18 $67 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 12 $65 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 11 $63 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $63 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 24 $65 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 24 $63 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 23 $63 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 23 $63 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $65 $0 -0%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 22 $63 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $62 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $62 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $68 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 18 $69 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 17 $66 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? Apr 11 $21 $0 -1%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 8? Apr 09 $12 $0 +0%
Avalanche vs. Blues Apr 08 $9 +$7 +70%
Blackhawks vs. Sharks Apr 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $21 −$21 -100%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 07 $8 +$8 +105%
Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies Apr 07 $16 +$2 +10%
Canucks vs. Avalanche Apr 03 $10 +$38 +376%
Will Solana reach $160 in March? Apr 01 $42 $0 +0%
Saint Louis Billikens vs. Georgia Bulldogs Mar 27 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of February? Mar 05 $79 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Feb 13 $79 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Dec 29 $13,533 −$14 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 08 $10 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 18 $27 −$1 -3%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 17 $23 $0 -2%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 30 $23 −$1 -2%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 24 $28 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana reach $140 in June? BUY No 100¢ $52 1h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $15 3d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $15 3d
Will Team Liquid win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 100¢ $16 20d
Will Team Liquid win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 100¢ $16 20d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $13 21d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $15 21d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $13 21d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $15 22d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $15 22d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $13 23d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $13 23d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $12 25d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $12 25d
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $10 26d
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $10 26d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $12 27d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $12 27d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in May? BUY No 100¢ $27 27d
Will Zhejiang Zhiye FC win on 2026-05-20? BUY Yes 31¢ $6 28d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 28d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 28d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $64 29d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $64 29d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $67 30d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $67 30d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 100¢ $65 36d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 100¢ $65 36d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL No 100¢ $63 37d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY No 100¢ $63 37d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.63 · official $51.63 (match) · 255 history records