Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:23:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

F8 0xf89f…02af sports 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 25d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$7 (+2%) realized +$30 · open −$23

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip

Net edge-6%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%2W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$70per market

Trades / day0.4pace

Fees−$9est.

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days$0

14 days−$21

30 days+$6

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-6.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	4	+3.8%	-6.1%	50%	50%	-6.6%
≤90d	4	+3.8%	-6.1%	50%	50%	-6.6%
all	4	+3.8%	-6.1%	50%	50%	-6.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.4 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-6.1%	50%	-6.6%
10%	-15.1%	50%	-15.5%
15%	-23.3%	50%	-23.7%
20%	-30.8%	50%	-31.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 72% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +3% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +4% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$51 vs −$47 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.07 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage

Net worth$51

Realized+$30

Unrealized−$23

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses2 / 2

Est. fees paid−$9

Open positions2

Markets (closed)4 / 6

History coverage25d

Avg bet$70

Trades / day0.4

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	Yes	59¢	60¢	$50	$51	+$1 (+3%)
Valorant: Azure Dragon Gaming vs NRG Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage	Azure Dragon Gaming	22¢	0¢	$24	$0	−$24 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$51	+$29	+57%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$51	−$50	-99%
Valorant: Division One vs YFP Gaming (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage	Jun 03	$46	+$72	+158%
Valorant: Azure Dragon Gaming vs M80 (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage	Jun 02	$46	−$45	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Valorant: Azure Dragon Gaming vs NRG Academy (BO3) - VCL North America	BUY Azure Dragon Gaming	21¢	$22	1h
Valorant: Azure Dragon Gaming vs NRG Academy (BO3) - VCL North America	SELL Azure Dragon Gaming	19¢	$118	1h
Valorant: Azure Dragon Gaming vs NRG Academy (BO3) - VCL North America	BUY Azure Dragon Gaming	25¢	$102	1h
Valorant: Azure Dragon Gaming vs NRG Academy (BO3) - VCL North America	BUY Azure Dragon Gaming	20¢	$51	1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	59¢	$51	3h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	63¢	$51	13d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	59¢	$51	13d
Valorant: Division One vs YFP Gaming (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage	SELL YFP Gaming	100¢	$118	23d
Valorant: Division One vs YFP Gaming (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage	BUY YFP Gaming	38¢	$46	24d
Valorant: Azure Dragon Gaming vs M80 (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage	BUY Azure Dragon Gaming	30¢	$46	24d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.33 · official $51.33 (match) · 11 history records