Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:58:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf89d…8062 crypto 283 markets active 3d ago coverage 4d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 3d only
✗ bot/MM pace (794 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,646 (-10%) realized −$1,646 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -53% what you keep after slip
Net edge-53%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate20%58W / 225L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day793.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$1,235
weather 4% −$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (794 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-45.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 193 -53.3% -57.8% 21% 12% -16.5%
≤30d 283 -39.3% -45.1% 20% 14% -16.7%
≤90d 283 -39.3% -45.1% 20% 14% -16.7%
all 283 -39.3% -45.1% 20% 14% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover793.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -45.1% 14% -16.7%
10% ← realistic here -50.3% 11% -24.7%
15% -55.1% 8% -31.9%
20% -59.5% 7% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -39% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -75% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
10.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$12 · ×2.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,646
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses58 / 225
Open positions0
Markets (closed)283 / 283
History coverage4d ⚠
Avg bet$57
Trades / day793.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 283 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? Jun 15 $48 −$7 -14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 3d
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 3d
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 3d
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $0 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 3d
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 3d
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 3d
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records