Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:39:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
F8 0xf89c…464d other 18 markets active 0h ago coverage 34d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$174 (+4%) realized +$138 · open +$36
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate64%7W / 4L
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$223per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$1,554now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$65
7 days−$65
14 days−$42
30 days+$74
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 60% +$162
other 39% −$74
sports 1% +$23
tech 0% −$1
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+3.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -6.3% -15.2% 43% 29% -13.3%
≤30d 11 +14.7% +3.8% 64% 55% -6.8%
≤90d 11 +14.7% +3.8% 64% 55% -6.8%
all 11 +14.7% +3.8% 64% 55% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.8% 55% -6.8%
10% -6.1% 36% -15.8%
15% -15.2% 36% -23.9%
20% -23.5% 36% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 79% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$24 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.76 per $1 lost it wins $1.76
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$1,554
Realized+$138
Unrealized+$36
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses7 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)11 / 18
History coverage34d
Avg bet$223
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? No 93¢ 96¢ $1,485 $1,525 +$40 (+3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-16%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-12%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 25? Yes 36¢ 36¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$9 +164%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $1,025 −$90 -9%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $501 +$19 +4%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 +$10 +97%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $15 +$13 +85%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $2 $0 +11%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $914 +$116 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 51m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 25? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $501 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $520 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 7d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $10 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $487 13d
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $1,005 13d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 13d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 13d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $433 13d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $968 15d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 53¢ $15 18d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $48 21d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $13 21d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $914 32d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 33d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 33d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 33d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 33d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $1,025 33d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $501 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,554.03 · official $1,554.03 (match) · 69 history records