Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:42:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F8 0xf898…deff sports 354 markets active 0h ago coverage 230d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$437 (+1%) realized +$476 · open −$39
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate45%158W / 194L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$117per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$333est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$320now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$295
7 days+$2,151
14 days+$2,365
30 days+$2,701
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$458
other 1% −$136
crypto 1% +$63
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +76.1% +59.3% 41% 41% +45.2%
≤30d 188 +4.9% -5.0% 43% 40% +2.4%
≤90d 276 -2.2% -11.5% 43% 41% -5.6%
all 352 -5.0% -14.0% 45% 43% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 43% -8.6%
10% -22.3% 35% -17.4%
15% -29.8% 32% -25.4%
20% -36.7% 25% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -15% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$88 vs −$70 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

230d coverage
Net worth$320
Realized+$476
Unrealized−$39
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses158 / 194
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$333
Open positions2
Markets (closed)352 / 354
History coverage230d
Avg bet$117
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 352 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $333 $320 −$13 (-4%)
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Dplus KIA Challengers 20¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 177 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 18 $51 +$57 +112%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 18 $117 +$105 +90%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $12 +$108 +873%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $56 −$55 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $142 +$42 +30%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$8 -77%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $31 +$50 +165%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $211 +$250 +118%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $87 −$86 -98%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $131 +$78 +60%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $19 −$19 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $131 +$62 +48%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $21 −$20 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $424 +$1,053 +248%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $159 −$156 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $92 +$117 +128%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $100 +$162 +162%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $96 −$94 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $49 −$48 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $130 −$128 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $94 −$92 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $479 +$839 +175%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $135 −$132 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Neither team to score first? Jun 12 $65 −$64 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $102 −$16 -16%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $17 −$17 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $13 −$12 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $506 +$370 +73%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $121 −$120 -99%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $6 −$6 -98%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Partizan Sangal (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss S Jun 08 $26 −$25 -98%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $330 −$29 -9%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $249 +$164 +66%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $31 −$30 -98%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $13 −$13 -98%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $20 +$43 +213%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $75 +$6 +8%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $50 +$54 +109%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $14 −$14 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $51 +$43 +84%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $34 +$27 +78%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $153 +$267 +174%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $152 −$150 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $31 −$30 -98%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $22 +$29 +128%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $12 −$12 -98%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $20 +$59 +287%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 96¢ $107 25m
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 49¢ $10 49m
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 44¢ $41 49m
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $223 56m
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 58¢ $51 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 52¢ $19 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 46¢ $7 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 47¢ $41 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $120 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 10¢ $12 2h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 20¢ $27 3h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 4¢ $5 24h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 37¢ $25 24h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 37¢ $25 24h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 99¢ $25 25h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 8¢ $2 25h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 87¢ $179 25h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 68¢ $63 25h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 68¢ $40 25h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 60¢ $19 25h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 68¢ $17 25h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 4¢ $4 27h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 28h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 28h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $81 28h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 37¢ $31 28h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $339 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 99¢ $461 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 15¢ $18 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 55¢ $193 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $320.26 · official $320.26 (match) · 822 history records