Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:07:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf897…7f01 sports 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 239d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$46 (-2%) realized −$46 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate72%21W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$88per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$37
7 days+$137
14 days+$89
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% −$161
other 34% +$151
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -3.4% -12.6% 80% 52% -3.7%
≤30d 28 -8.5% -17.2% 75% 50% -8.6%
≤90d 28 -8.5% -17.2% 75% 50% -8.6%
all 29 -9.3% -18.0% 72% 48% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.0% 48% -9.9%
10% -25.8% 21% -18.5%
15% -33.0% 7% -26.4%
20% -39.6% 7% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 57% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$55 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

239d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$46
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses21 / 8
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage239d
Avg bet$88
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ goals Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Spain to score first vs. Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $201 +$24 +12%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $243 +$18 +8%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $60 +$2 +4%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 21 $100 +$11 +11%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $26 +$5 +18%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $41 +$14 +34%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $41 +$13 +31%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $51 −$33 -65%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $404 +$221 +55%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $60 −$60 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 +$13 +26%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $40 +$2 +4%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$8 +75%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $20 +$2 +12%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $15 +$2 +14%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $101 +$21 +21%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $101 +$4 +4%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $61 +$2 +4%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $101 +$5 +5%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $101 +$18 +18%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $92 +$25 +27%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $101 −$66 -65%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $140 +$18 +12%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $67 −$65 -97%
Aspinall vs. Gane Oct 25 $100 −$34 -34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score SELL No 83¢ $47 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 70¢ $40 1h
Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ goals BUY No 100¢ $50 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 77¢ $63 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 73¢ $60 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score SELL No 69¢ $214 2h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Spain 99¢ $111 2h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 89¢ $100 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 64¢ $202 2h
Spain to score first vs. Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 89¢ $201 3h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 72¢ $31 21h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 60¢ $26 21h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY No 45¢ $51 23h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL No 58¢ $55 44h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY No 42¢ $41 45h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score SELL No 75¢ $53 46h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 56¢ $41 47h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 24¢ $18 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 66¢ $51 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 64¢ $404 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 74¢ $60 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 79¢ $50 3d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 50¢ $102 3d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL DR Congo 77¢ $42 4d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 73¢ $40 4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $30 4d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 49¢ $18 4d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 4d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 76¢ $23 4d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 67¢ $20 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 55 history records