Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T06:52:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf896…8833 crypto 810 markets active 2h ago coverage 77d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 77d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$212 (+0%) realized +$212 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate99%801W / 6L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day39.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$24
14 days+$47
30 days+$113
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 72% −$169
crypto 28% +$175
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +1.0% -8.6% 100% 0% -8.7%
≤30d 174 +1.0% -8.7% 100% 0% -8.7%
≤90d 807 +0.4% -9.2% 99% 0% -9.5%
all 807 +0.4% -9.2% 99% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.2% 0% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -17.9% 0% -18.2%
15% -25.8% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$108 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized+$212
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses801 / 6
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)807 / 810
History coverage77d ⚠
Avg bet$82
Trades / day39.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 807 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum dip to $1,250 on June 28? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Solana reach $95 on June 28? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will XRP dip to $0.80 on June 28? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 28? Jun 28 $127 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $53,000 on June 27? Jun 28 $5 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $1.30 on June 27? Jun 28 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 27 $74 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 27? Jun 27 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C or higher on June 27? Jun 27 $148 +$1 +1%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 on June 26? Jun 27 $99 +$1 +1%
Will XRP reach $1.25 on June 26? Jun 27 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $53,000 on June 26? Jun 27 $119 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 26? Jun 26 $148 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 26? Jun 26 $148 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $53,000 on June 25? Jun 26 $119 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 on June 25? Jun 26 $119 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 25? Jun 25 $23 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 25? Jun 25 $74 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 25? Jun 25 $72 +$1 +1%
Will Solana reach $90 on June 24? Jun 25 $5 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 on June 24? Jun 25 $119 +$1 +1%
Will Solana dip to $45 on June 24? Jun 25 $10 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 on June 24? Jun 25 $119 +$1 +1%
Will XRP reach $1.35 on June 24? Jun 25 $5 $0 +1%
Will XRP dip to $0.90 on June 23? Jun 24 $10 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 23? Jun 24 $119 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2,050 on June 23? Jun 24 $5 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $1.35 on June 23? Jun 24 $10 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $50 on June 23? Jun 24 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on June 23? Jun 23 $74 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 23? Jun 23 $74 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 23? Jun 23 $74 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 23? Jun 23 $74 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 23? Jun 23 $74 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 22? Jun 22 $148 +$1 +1%
Will Solana reach $95 on June 21? Jun 22 $99 +$1 +1%
Will XRP reach $1.35 on June 21? Jun 22 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 21? Jun 21 $3 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 on June 20? Jun 21 $5 $0 +1%
Will XRP dip to $0.90 on June 20? Jun 21 $5 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2,050 on June 20? Jun 21 $5 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $71,000 on June 20? Jun 21 $5 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $90 on June 20? Jun 21 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 20? Jun 20 $74 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,350 on June 19? Jun 20 $5 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 on June 19? Jun 20 $10 $0 +1%
Will XRP dip to $0.90 on June 19? Jun 20 $10 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 on June 19? Jun 20 $10 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $45 on June 19? Jun 20 $10 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $1.35 on June 19? Jun 20 $10 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $90 on June 19? Jun 20 $10 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 on June 19? Jun 20 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 19? Jun 19 $148 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $128 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $28 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $50 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $50 2h
Will XRP dip to $0.80 on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $5 2h
Will Solana reach $95 on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $5 2h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,250 on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju SELL Yes 100¢ $75 7h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 99¢ $74 9h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 27? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 13h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 27? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 15h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C or higher on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $150 17h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C or higher on June 27? BUY No 99¢ $50 17h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C or higher on June 27? BUY No 99¢ $50 17h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C or higher on June 27? BUY No 99¢ $50 17h
Will Bitcoin dip to $53,000 on June 27? BUY No 99¢ $5 26h
Will XRP reach $1.30 on June 27? BUY No 99¢ $5 26h
Will Bitcoin dip to $53,000 on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $30 41h
Will Bitcoin dip to $53,000 on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $30 41h
Will Bitcoin dip to $53,000 on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $30 41h
Will Bitcoin dip to $53,000 on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $30 41h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $150 42h
Will XRP dip to $0.80 on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $10 42h
Will XRP dip to $0.80 on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $30 42h
Will XRP dip to $0.80 on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $30 42h
Will XRP dip to $0.80 on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $30 42h
Will XRP reach $1.25 on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $10 42h
Will XRP reach $1.25 on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $30 42h
Will XRP reach $1.25 on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $30 42h
Will XRP reach $1.25 on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $30 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.92 · official $14.92 (match) · 3500 history records