Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:21:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
F8 0xf895…fb74 sports 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 573d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$22 (-26%) realized −$23 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate73%16W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 46% −$11
sports 31% −$4
other 17% −$8
weather 5% $0
crypto 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +14.8% +3.9% 67% 67% +4.9%
≤30d 3 +14.8% +3.9% 67% 67% +4.9%
≤90d 3 +14.8% +3.9% 67% 67% +4.9%
all 22 -8.5% -17.2% 73% 50% -33.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.2% 50% -33.5%
10% -25.1% 23% -39.9%
15% -32.3% 14% -45.7%
20% -39.0% 9% -51.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% too few recent
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$5 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

573d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses16 / 6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)22 / 24
History coverage573d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? No 64¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+56%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? No 62¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +93%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Nuggets vs. Kings Dec 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Heat vs. Pistons Dec 17 $3 $0 +12%
Mavericks vs. Warriors Dec 16 $3 $0 +12%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2024-12-15? Dec 15 $11 −$8 -75%
South Alabama vs. Western Michigan Dec 15 $2 −$2 -86%
Rockets vs. Thunder Dec 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will Everton win on 2024-12-14? Dec 15 $2 $0 +6%
Will Fulham win on 2024-12-14? Dec 15 $2 $0 +9%
Pacers vs. 76ers Dec 14 $1 +$1 +49%
Rams vs. 49ers Dec 13 $1 $0 +16%
Hawks vs. Knicks Dec 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Mavericks vs. Thunder Dec 11 $1 $0 +10%
Knicks vs. Raptors Dec 10 $1 $0 +20%
Rockets vs. Clippers Dec 09 $0 $0 +19%
Nuggets vs. Hawks Dec 09 $0 $0 +25%
Will Leicester win on 2024-12-08? Dec 08 $0 $0 +22%
Will Assad remain President of Syria through 2024? Dec 08 $14 −$14 -98%
Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? Dec 07 $14 $0 +2%
Will Yamandú Orsi win the 2024 Uruguay presidential election? Nov 25 $11 +$3 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 62¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 64¢ $1 25h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 65¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 61¢ $1 2d
Nuggets vs. Kings BUY Kings 68¢ $3 545d
Heat vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 89¢ $3 545d
Mavericks vs. Warriors BUY Mavericks 89¢ $3 546d
Will Crystal Palace win on 2024-12-15? SELL No 20¢ $3 546d
Will Crystal Palace win on 2024-12-15? BUY No 79¢ $11 546d
South Alabama vs. Western Michigan BUY South Alabama 94¢ $0 547d
South Alabama vs. Western Michigan SELL Western Michigan $0 547d
Rockets vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 100¢ $10 547d
South Alabama vs. Western Michigan BUY Western Michigan 67¢ $2 547d
Will Fulham win on 2024-12-14? BUY No 92¢ $2 548d
Will Everton win on 2024-12-14? BUY No 94¢ $2 548d
Pacers vs. 76ers BUY Pacers 67¢ $1 548d
Rams vs. 49ers BUY Rams 86¢ $1 549d
Hawks vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 81¢ $1 550d
Mavericks vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 91¢ $1 551d
Knicks vs. Raptors BUY Knicks 83¢ $1 552d
Rockets vs. Clippers BUY Rockets 84¢ $0 553d
Nuggets vs. Hawks SELL Nuggets 99¢ $0 553d
Nuggets vs. Hawks BUY Nuggets 79¢ $0 553d
Will Leicester win on 2024-12-08? BUY No 82¢ $0 554d
Will Assad remain President of Syria through 2024? SELL Yes $0 554d
Will Assad remain President of Syria through 2024? BUY Yes 37¢ $14 555d
Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? SELL Yes 36¢ $14 555d
Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? BUY Yes 35¢ $14 566d
Will Yamandú Orsi win the 2024 Uruguay presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $14 567d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.55 · official $2.55 (match) · 46 history records