Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T09:42:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf893…f47d crypto 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$10 (-2%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate47%9W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 18d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$52
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-22.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -1.0% -10.4% 53% 33% -17.5%
≤30d 19 -14.0% -22.2% 47% 32% -19.4%
≤90d 19 -14.0% -22.2% 47% 32% -19.4%
all 19 -14.0% -22.2% 47% 32% -19.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.2% 32% -19.4%
10% -29.7% 32% -27.1%
15% -36.5% 32% -34.2%
20% -42.7% 21% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 48% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$16 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses9 / 10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage18d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 27 $31 −$29 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 27 $31 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 27 $31 −$9 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 27 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 27 $31 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 27 $31 +$16 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 27 $31 +$12 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 27 $32 +$30 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 27 $62 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 27 $31 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 27 $31 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 27 $31 −$28 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 27 $16 +$22 +141%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 27 $16 +$25 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 09 $10 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 09 $2 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $2 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $31 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $30 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Down 54¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Down 59¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $28 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $33 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $31 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Down 3¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $31 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $16 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $16 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $9 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 42 history records