Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T00:15:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf892…5d7b world 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 490d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate42%14W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 81% −$2
sports 8% −$1
other 7% −$1
politics 2% $0
finance 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.2% -9.7% 33% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 20 -1.2% -10.6% 30% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 20 -1.2% -10.6% 30% 0% -9.9%
all 33 +0.7% -8.9% 42% 3% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 3% -9.9%
10% -17.6% 3% -18.5%
15% -25.6% 3% -26.4%
20% -32.9% 3% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 78% · top 2 89% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

490d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses14 / 19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage490d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 92¢ 92¢ $38 $38 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $68 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $15 $0 +0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 21 $68 +$1 +2%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $38 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 20 $72 $0 -1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $20 −$1 -4%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $38 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $22 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $8 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $37 $0 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $38 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 12 $39 −$2 -5%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $7 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $72 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $16 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $35 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $75 −$1 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $2 $0 -10%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $36 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $3 $0 -7%
Will Palmeiras win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 10 $2 $0 +3%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30? Jun 29 $6 $0 +4%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $1 $0 +1%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on May 31? Jun 01 $2 $0 +2%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 05 $1 $0 +2%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 05 $2 $0 +1%
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by March 15? Mar 17 $10 $0 +1%
Bowling Green vs. Northern Illinois Mar 04 $11 −$1 -6%
Thunder vs. Grizzlies Mar 04 $14 −$4 -26%
Will Trump say 'Greenland' during the 2025 State of the Union? Mar 04 $15 $0 -1%
Will Bayern Munich vs. Bayer Leverkusen end in a draw? Mar 04 $14 $0 +0%
Green Bay vs. Oakland Mar 04 $22 −$7 -34%
Louisiana vs. Troy Mar 04 $11 +$11 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $38 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $35 10h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $27 14h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $8 14h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $2 18h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $13 18h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $15 20h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 95¢ $30 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 95¢ $4 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 95¢ $9 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 95¢ $25 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $38 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $38 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 75¢ $34 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 76¢ $35 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $19 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $8 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $12 3d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 93¢ $28 3d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 93¢ $7 3d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 89¢ $34 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $38 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $38 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $22 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $22 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $34 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $34 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $8 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $8 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 61¢ $37 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.92 · official $37.92 (match) · 92 history records