Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:32:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
F8 0xf88a…11de sports 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 154d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$924 (-35%) realized −$999 · open +$75
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +16% what you keep after slip
Net edge+16%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%5W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$109per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$175now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$118
14 days−$118
30 days−$426
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 44% +$168
other 41% −$519
world 15% −$400
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)+16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +47.7% +33.6% 25% 25% -29.5%
≤30d 21 +40.6% +27.2% 24% 24% -40.4%
≤90d 21 +40.6% +27.2% 24% 24% -40.4%
all 23 +28.4% +16.2% 22% 22% -50.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +16.2% 22% -50.4%
10% +5.1% 22% -55.2%
15% -5.1% 22% -59.5%
20% -14.4% 17% -63.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 58% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +28% · $-wt -35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +110% → late -46% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$184 vs −$97 · ×1.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$175
Realized−$999
Unrealized+$75
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses5 / 18
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)23 / 24
History coverage154d
Avg bet$109
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 100¢ $100 $175 +$75 (+75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $102 +$115 +113%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $182 +$91 +50%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $102 +$184 +180%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $102 +$254 +248%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $152 −$150 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $254 +$279 +110%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $314 −$307 -98%
Israel strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? Jan 14 $200 −$200 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 14 $200 −$200 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 42¢ $102 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $217 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 46¢ $102 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $272 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $182 2h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 48¢ $51 5h
Spread: Austria (-2.5) BUY Austria 37¢ $51 17h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 18h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $101 18h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 35¢ $102 25h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $51 47h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 47h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 28¢ $51 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 32¢ $51 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 99¢ $353 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $102 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 43¢ $102 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 4d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 32¢ $102 4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 4¢ $31 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 5d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) SELL Mexico 100¢ $533 6d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 60¢ $101 6d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 41¢ $153 6d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 24¢ $123 18d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 39¢ $190 18d
Israel strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $150 154d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $175.49 · official $175.35 (match) · 33 history records