Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T13:43:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F8
0xf88a…dfd6
sports · 79 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$82 -25%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$108 · open +$16
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge
Net worth$32
Realized−$108
Unrealized+$16
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses26 / 42
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions11
Markets (closed)68 / 79
History coverage81d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%
Chart Positions 11 History 68 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$5
14 days−$6
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 81¢ $2 $20 +$17 (+794%)
Will Faker win a Finals MVP Award at an international event in 2026? Yes 14¢ 15¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+8%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 18¢ 14¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-20%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes $2 $1 −$1 (-30%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+35%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-16%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Knicks 36¢ 36¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Team WE 20¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Game Handicap: TES (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5) Team WE 51¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs JD Gaming 25¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs JD Gaming (+1.5) JD Gaming 45¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Thunder vs. Spurs Spurs 56¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Cavaliers Cavaliers $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner Team WE 19¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Anyone's Legend (+1.5) Anyones Legend 39¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 TYLOO 33¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Game Handicap: AL (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) Anyones Legend 37¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 -31%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 12 $3 $0 -19%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $2 +$6 +314%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 11 $2 −$1 -94%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs TYLOO (+1.5) Jun 09 $2 +$1 +84%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $1 +$1 +82%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Anyone's Legend (+1.5) Jun 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs JD Gaming (+1.5) Jun 05 $2 −$1 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Game Handicap: TES (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5) Jun 05 $2 −$1 -54%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $2 +$3 +165%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $2 −$1 -47%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 01 $1 +$2 +177%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 01 $9 −$8 -86%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 01 $5 −$4 -79%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? Jun 01 $1 +$1 +57%
Game Handicap: AL (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) May 31 $2 −$1 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 31 $1 +$3 +249%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner May 30 $1 +$5 +468%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner May 30 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 27 $1 $0 -6%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $1 −$1 -97%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 24 $1 +$1 +87%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner May 24 $1 +$1 +51%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO5) - CS Asia Championships P May 24 $1 +$2 +149%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $6 +$5 +90%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 21 $1 −$1 -99%
Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan this week? May 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during the day of their May 14 $1 $0 +13%
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? May 14 $7 −$3 -40%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Lakers vs. Rockets May 14 $2 −$2 -100%
76ers vs. Knicks May 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? May 14 $1 −$1 -69%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 13 $1 −$1 -69%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 11 $2 +$2 +90%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 11 $1 $0 -9%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 11 $5 +$2 +48%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 10 $9 −$9 -100%
Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027? May 07 $1 $0 -8%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 05 $1 +$3 +298%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers May 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? May 03 $1 $0 -5%
76ers vs. Celtics May 03 $2 +$4 +237%
Lakers vs. Rockets May 02 $3 +$5 +152%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Apr 29 $3 +$1 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 37% −$92
sports 33% −$9
world 19% +$6
other 9% +$1
tech 2% −$1
finance 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Team WE 16¢ $1 59m
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 20¢ $1 1h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes $1 36h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? SELL Yes 48¢ $2 36h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 36h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 58¢ $3 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $1 2d
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) SELL Knicks $0 2d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 56¢ $3 2d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 13¢ $1 2d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 31¢ $1 2d
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) BUY Knicks 49¢ $2 2d
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs TYLOO (+1.5) SELL Legacy 90¢ $3 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 98¢ $2 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 53¢ $1 4d
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs TYLOO (+1.5) BUY Legacy 48¢ $2 4d
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Anyone's Legend (+1.5) BUY Anyones Legend 39¢ $1 5d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes $1 5d
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes $1 5d
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs JD Gaming (+1.5) BUY JD Gaming 45¢ $2 8d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY JD Gaming 25¢ $1 8d
Game Handicap: TES (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5) BUY Team WE 51¢ $1 8d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 56¢ $11 9d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 100¢ $4 9d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 SELL TYLOO 34¢ $1 10d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY TYLOO 31¢ $1 10d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY TYLOO 35¢ $1 10d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $2 11d
Game Handicap: TES (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5) SELL Top Esports 43¢ $1 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +33.5% +20.8% 43% 43% +31.6%
≤30d 31 +17.4% +6.2% 42% 42% -10.5%
≤90d 68 +2.3% -7.4% 38% 38% -41.7%
all 68 +2.3% -7.4% 38% 38% -41.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.4% 38% -41.7%
10% -16.3% 37% -47.3%
15% -24.4% 34% -52.4%
20% -31.8% 29% -57.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.75 · official $31.76 (match) · 177 history records