Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:31:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf88a…09bd other 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$375 (-41%) realized −$374 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -58% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -64% what you keep after slip
Net edge-64%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%2W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$279
crypto 27% −$65
sports 9% −$40
world 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-62.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -58.5% -62.5% 25% 25% -52.0%
≤30d 8 -58.5% -62.5% 25% 25% -52.0%
≤90d 8 -58.5% -62.5% 25% 25% -52.0%
all 8 -58.5% -62.5% 25% 25% -52.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -62.5% 25% -52.0%
10% -66.1% 25% -56.6%
15% -69.4% 25% -60.8%
20% -72.4% 12% -64.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -47% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -59% · $-wt -47% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$86 vs −$92 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized−$374
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses2 / 6
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)8 / 11
History coverage3d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 50¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $303 −$300 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $79 −$79 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $128 +$49 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -94%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $132 +$123 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $41 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 39¢ $41 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $303 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $27 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $177 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $102 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06- BUY 2¢ $26 2d
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 43¢ $102 2d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $21 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $132 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.74 · official $58.74 (match) · 18 history records