Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:29:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf887…08b3 other 137 markets active 2h ago coverage 126d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$52 (-1%) realized −$54 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate6%8W / 129L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 42% −$3
other 35% −$2
sports 8% −$47
crypto 5% $0
economics 4% $0
culture 2% $0
tech 2% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 24 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 102 -0.1% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.6%
all 137 -3.0% -12.3% 6% 1% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 1% -10.4%
10% -20.6% 1% -19.0%
15% -28.3% 1% -26.8%
20% -35.3% 1% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 99% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$54
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses8 / 129
Open positions0
Markets (closed)137 / 137
History coverage126d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 137 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $8 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $11 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 12 $16 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 11 $13 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $14 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 07 $11 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $10 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $113 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $77 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $74 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $83 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $140 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $129 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $69 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $79 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $154 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $68 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 22 $146 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $64 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $72 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 19 $58 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $127 $0 -0%
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 17 $112 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $70 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $76 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 13 $63 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 12 $60 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 12 $8 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $14 $0 -0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 11 $44 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $52 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $110 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $55 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $55 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e May 07 $66 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 07 $99 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $56 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 07 $61 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $54 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $57 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $71 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $76 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $70 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $72 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 01 $62 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $143 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $79 $0 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 01 $61 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $68 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $79 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $8 1h
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $8 9h
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $11 9h
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $11 17h
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $11 2d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 3d
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $13 3d
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $13 5d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $14 7d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $14 7d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $11 7d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 8d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $10 16d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $10 16d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $58 17d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $58 18d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $77 18d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $77 18d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $74 18d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $74 18d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $78 18d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $78 19d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $60 19d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $60 20d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $60 20d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $60 20d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $63 21d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $63 21d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $79 21d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $79 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 398 history records