Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:58:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
F8 0xf887…6b54 other 252 markets active 0h ago coverage 172d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,453 (+3%) realized +$1,391 · open +$1,062
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate70%125W / 54L
Whale WR92%big bets
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$323per market
Trades / day11.9pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$26,920now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$48
7 days+$293
14 days+$356
30 days+$449
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% +$1,977
sports 20% −$276
crypto 13% +$400
finance 10% +$369
world 2% +$7
politics 1% −$12
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -23.3% -30.6% 64% 9% -7.7%
≤30d 33 +17.6% +6.4% 76% 27% -7.1%
≤90d 69 +10.0% -0.5% 68% 26% -7.5%
all 179 +1.5% -8.2% 70% 23% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 23% -7.1%
10% -17.0% 14% -16.0%
15% -25.0% 10% -24.1%
20% -32.4% 4% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 92% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$25 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.04 per $1 lost it wins $2.04
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

172d coverage
Net worth$26,920
Realized+$1,391
Unrealized+$1,062
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses125 / 54
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions73
Markets (closed)179 / 252
History coverage172d
Avg bet$323
Trades / day11.9
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 73 History 179 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina dollarize by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 100¢ $3,130 $3,247 +$117 (+4%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? No 97¢ 97¢ $2,916 $2,917 +$1 (+0%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? No 92¢ 100¢ $2,666 $2,868 +$202 (+8%)
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? No 89¢ 96¢ $2,072 $2,212 +$140 (+7%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? No 80¢ 82¢ $1,689 $1,734 +$46 (+3%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? No 95¢ 100¢ $966 $1,013 +$47 (+5%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,400 by end of June? No 97¢ 99¢ $891 $909 +$19 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? No 83¢ 86¢ $853 $888 +$35 (+4%)
Will Silver (SI) settle at $80-$90 in June? No 93¢ 99¢ $743 $794 +$51 (+7%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? No 72¢ 70¢ $721 $705 −$16 (-2%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? No 92¢ 100¢ $642 $697 +$54 (+8%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? No 90¢ 100¢ $631 $696 +$65 (+10%)
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? No 88¢ 88¢ $546 $549 +$3 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 92¢ $519 $536 +$17 (+3%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? No 91¢ 99¢ $455 $496 +$42 (+9%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? No 89¢ 92¢ $446 $458 +$12 (+3%)
Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? No 91¢ 94¢ $429 $441 +$12 (+3%)
Will Argentina’s annual inflation in 2026 be at least 45%? No 93¢ 94¢ $419 $424 +$5 (+1%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $45 by end of June? No 94¢ 99¢ $390 $409 +$19 (+5%)
Will the official USD to ARS exchange rate be 1600.00 or higher at the end of December 2026? Yes 55¢ 56¢ $348 $360 +$12 (+3%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? No 93¢ 100¢ $279 $299 +$20 (+7%)
Will Silver (SI) settle at $90-$100 in June? No 95¢ 99¢ $285 $298 +$13 (+4%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? No 96¢ 98¢ $287 $295 +$8 (+3%)
Will the official USD to ARS exchange rate be between 1400.00 and 1449.99 at the end of December 2026? No 90¢ 94¢ $227 $236 +$9 (+4%)
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? No 97¢ 99¢ $195 $200 +$5 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 20 $716 +$48 +7%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 17 $1,695 +$100 +6%
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? Jun 17 $4,014 +$116 +3%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3,902 +$98 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Jun 15 $2,708 +$96 +4%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June? Jun 15 $864 +$59 +7%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $157 +$43 +27%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $32 −$32 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $171 −$170 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $372 −$46 -12%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Jun 13 $52 +$1 +3%
Will Argentina's monthly inflation in May 2026 be less than or equal t Jun 12 $184 +$46 +25%
Will Argentina's monthly inflation in May 2026 be between 3.4% and 3.6 Jun 12 $29 $0 +0%
Will Argentina's monthly inflation in May 2026 be between 3.1% and 3.3 Jun 12 $14 $0 +0%
Will Argentina's monthly inflation in May 2026 be 4.0% or higher? Jun 12 $12 $0 +0%
Will Argentina's monthly inflation in May 2026 be between 2.5% and 2.7 Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the official USD to ARS exchange rate be between 1300.00 and 1349 Jun 09 $1 +$4 +477%
Will Argentina's monthly inflation in May 2026 be between 2.8% and 3.0 Jun 08 $35 +$2 +5%
Will Sergio Massa win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? Jun 08 $3 +$14 +412%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of June? Jun 06 $40 −$20 -52%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 06 $6 +$4 +67%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $247 +$14 +6%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $85 by end of June? Jun 03 $25 −$1 -2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? Jun 02 $153 +$26 +17%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 29 $712 −$10 -1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 29 $252 +$39 +16%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May? May 29 $588 +$9 +2%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June? May 29 $48 +$12 +26%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 28 $340 +$15 +4%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? May 28 $3 +$1 +30%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $210 by end of June? May 26 $295 +$3 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? May 26 $62 +$1 +2%
Will Mauricio Macri win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? May 20 $6 +$14 +216%
Will the official USD to ARS exchange rate be between 1900.00 and 1999 May 19 $139 +$57 +41%
Will Argentina's monthly inflation in May 2026 be between 2.2% and 2.4 May 18 $32 −$32 -100%
CA River Plate vs. CA Rosario Central: O/U 2.5 May 17 $54 +$6 +10%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 16 $85 −$7 -8%
Will Argentina’s monthly inflation in April 2026 be between 2.8% and 3 May 15 $44 +$21 +46%
Will Argentina’s monthly inflation in April 2026 be between 3.1% and 3 May 15 $117 +$2 +2%
Will Argentina’s monthly inflation in April 2026 be between 3.4% and 3 May 15 $193 +$7 +4%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of December? May 14 $90 +$4 +4%
Will Argentina’s monthly inflation in April 2026 be between 2.2% and 2 May 12 $5 +$4 +70%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? May 11 $1,997 +$120 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET May 07 $584 −$20 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET May 07 $170 +$30 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET May 07 $125 −$5 -4%
Will MrBeast's video get between 62 and 64 million views on day 3? May 05 $42 −$1 -2%
Will MrBeast's video get between 66 and 68 million views on day 3? May 05 $290 +$2 +1%
Will MrBeast's video get between 68 and 70 million views on day 3? May 05 $5 −$2 -41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 97¢ $132 28m
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 97¢ $104 39m
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 97¢ $35 53m
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 97¢ $2,647 1h
Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? BUY Yes 47¢ $153 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $22 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $28 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $17 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $36 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $39 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $42 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $59 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $12 1h
Will the official USD to ARS exchange rate be 1600.00 or higher at the BUY Yes 45¢ $29 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $179 3h
Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? SELL No 53¢ $7 3h
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $13 5h
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $50 6h
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $65 11h
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $77 11h
Will the official USD to ARS exchange rate be between 1700.00 and 1799 BUY Yes 5¢ $1 12h
Will Victoria Villarruel win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 12h
Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? SELL No 53¢ $34 12h
Will Victoria Villarruel win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 12h
Will Dante Gebel win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 12h
Will Victoria Villarruel win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 12h
Will Victoria Villarruel win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 12h
Will the official USD to ARS exchange rate be 1600.00 or higher at the BUY Yes 42¢ $0 27h
Will Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? BUY No 57¢ $28 30h
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $55 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26,920.30 · official $26,920.42 (match) · 2331 history records