Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:23:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf886…82cb crypto 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$79 (-40%) realized −$114 · open +$35
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%6W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$122now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 10d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% +$35
crypto 25% −$19
world 21% −$40
sports 10% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-31.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -18.9% -26.6% 46% 46% -70.5%
≤30d 14 -24.7% -31.9% 43% 43% -75.8%
≤90d 14 -24.7% -31.9% 43% 43% -75.8%
all 14 -24.7% -31.9% 43% 43% -75.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.9% 43% -75.8%
10% -38.4% 29% -78.1%
15% -44.3% 21% -80.2%
20% -49.8% 14% -82.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 72% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -73% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -73% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -44% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$11 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$122
Realized−$114
Unrealized+$35
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses6 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)14 / 19
History coverage10d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 49¢ 100¢ $39 $80 +$41 (+105%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $39 $31 −$8 (-21%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+14%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+72%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$5 +157%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$4 +185%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $41 −$40 -98%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 08 $20 −$19 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 49¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 18h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 18h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 26¢ $31 20h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 3d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 5d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 5d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 5d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $6 5d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $121.91 · official $121.91 (match) · 48 history records