Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T01:30:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
F8 0xf886…2620 sports 90 markets active 9h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$50,981 (+9%) realized +$50,981 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate64%58W / 32L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$6,400per market
Trades / day37.5pace
Fees−$5,755est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$61,358
7 days−$37,884
14 days+$28,882
30 days+$47,852
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$54,653
other 3% −$6,800
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -10.8% -19.3% 54% 54% -22.9%
≤30d 90 +4.2% -5.7% 64% 62% -2.0%
≤90d 90 +4.2% -5.7% 64% 62% -2.0%
all 90 +4.2% -5.7% 64% 62% -2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.5 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.7% 62% -2.0%
10% -14.7% 58% -11.4%
15% ← realistic here -23.0% 44% -19.9%
20% -30.5% 33% -27.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$8,655) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
9.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3,499 vs −$4,847 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$50,981
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses58 / 32
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$5,755
Open positions0
Markets (closed)90 / 90
History coverage23d
Avg bet$6,400
Trades / day37.5
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 90 Trades
no open positions (29 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $28,315 −$27,979 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $18,132 +$10,183 +56%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $39,925 −$39,890 -100%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 19 $1,802 +$1,614 +90%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $4,771 −$4,726 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $560 −$559 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $34,399 +$15,686 +46%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $6,656 −$6,550 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $13,328 +$3,308 +25%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $1,020 +$2,010 +197%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $24,386 +$6,512 +27%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $15,207 −$6,358 -42%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $326 −$326 -100%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 17 $1,664 +$1,032 +62%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 15 $1,648 +$952 +58%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $1,112 +$863 +78%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $945 +$122 +13%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $11,538 +$6,085 +53%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $506 −$500 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $36,413 +$8,286 +23%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $4,550 −$4,472 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $927 −$909 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $3,535 +$2,015 +57%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $5,146 −$4,284 -83%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $11,049 +$4,273 +39%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 13 $2,476 +$2,320 +94%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $9,159 +$5,646 +62%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $14,416 +$3,719 +26%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 13 $304 +$296 +97%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $3,953 +$1,222 +31%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $6,909 −$6,786 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $514 −$505 -98%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs TheMongolz (+1.5) Jun 13 $1,840 +$1,260 +68%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $638 +$62 +10%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $2,259 +$3,289 +146%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $2,567 +$131 +5%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1,559 +$1,445 +93%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 12 $1,836 +$1,315 +72%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $2,751 +$1,023 +37%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $5,244 +$2,356 +45%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $2,242 +$764 +34%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $1,483 −$1,470 -99%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 12 $510 −$510 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $5,080 +$5,010 +99%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $2,082 −$2,045 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $757 −$422 -56%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1,375 −$1,375 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $6,217 +$2,585 +42%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $1,180 +$765 +65%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $29,506 +$22,497 +76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 60¢ $62 8h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 60¢ $28,253 8h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL FURIA 100¢ $28,315 8h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 60¢ $223 11h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 64¢ $331 11h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 64¢ $32 11h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 64¢ $356 11h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 64¢ $135 11h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 64¢ $16 11h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 64¢ $3 11h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 64¢ $173 11h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 64¢ $356 11h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 64¢ $13 11h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 64¢ $5 11h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 64¢ $5 11h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 64¢ $356 11h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 64¢ $578 11h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 64¢ $16 11h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 64¢ $5 11h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 64¢ $11 11h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 64¢ $26 11h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 64¢ $640 11h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 64¢ $89 11h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 64¢ $356 11h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 64¢ $356 11h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 64¢ $640 11h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 64¢ $356 11h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 64¢ $4,320 11h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 64¢ $7 11h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 64¢ $34 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 940 history records