Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:00:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf885…ab9d crypto 27 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$144 (-7%) realized −$144 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate59%16W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day28.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$212
sports 6% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-31.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -24.4% -31.6% 59% 30% -20.0%
≤30d 27 -24.4% -31.6% 59% 30% -20.0%
≤90d 27 -24.4% -31.6% 59% 30% -20.0%
all 27 -24.4% -31.6% 59% 30% -20.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -31.6% 30% -20.0%
10% ← realistic here -38.2% 11% -27.7%
15% -44.1% 7% -34.7%
20% -49.6% 7% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 64% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$44 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$144
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses16 / 11
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)27 / 27
History coverage1d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day28.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 27 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 21 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 21 $101 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 21 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 21 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 21 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 21 $111 −$3 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 21 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 21 $101 +$15 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 21 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 21 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$5 +90%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros Jun 21 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 21 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 20 $101 +$11 +11%
UFC Fight Night: Gaston Bolaños vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Pre Jun 20 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 20 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 20 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 20 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 20 $104 +$131 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 20 $102 +$30 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 20 $25 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 20 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 20 $101 +$11 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 20 $100 +$7 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $100 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $101 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $100 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $100 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $105 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $27 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $25 5h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros BUY Cleveland Guardians 95¢ $100 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $26 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $101 6h
UFC Fight Night: Gaston Bolaños vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Pre BUY Michael Aswell 60¢ $30 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $103 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $26 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $106 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $104 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $102 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $25 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $25 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $101 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $100 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 62 history records