Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:06:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf885…5274 world 176 markets active 0h ago coverage 49d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$922 (+2%) realized +$276 · open −$260
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate72%89W / 34L
Whale WR74%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$266per market
Trades / day38.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$15,138now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$253
7 days+$487
14 days+$826
30 days+$185
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 60% −$1,729
other 17% +$511
politics 16% +$989
culture 3% −$27
crypto 2% +$119
finance 1% +$81
sports 1% +$5
economics 0% +$67
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +4.3% -5.6% 77% 50% -1.0%
≤30d 109 -2.8% -12.1% 72% 33% -8.9%
≤90d 123 -2.3% -11.6% 72% 31% -8.6%
all 123 -2.3% -11.6% 72% 31% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.6% 31% -8.6%
10% ← realistic here -20.1% 20% -17.4%
15% -27.8% 12% -25.4%
20% -34.9% 9% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 74% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$103 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$15,138
Realized+$276
Unrealized−$260
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses89 / 34
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions53
Markets (closed)123 / 176
History coverage49d
Avg bet$266
Trades / day38.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 53 History 123 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 84¢ 90¢ $6,730 $7,240 +$510 (+8%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 42¢ 40¢ $2,510 $2,430 −$80 (-3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 35¢ 28¢ $1,683 $1,380 −$302 (-18%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? No 64¢ 99¢ $392 $608 +$216 (+55%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 76¢ 88¢ $400 $466 +$66 (+16%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 89¢ 99¢ $263 $293 +$30 (+11%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 84¢ 84¢ $273 $273 −$0 (-0%)
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 97¢ $173 $174 +$2 (+1%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 78¢ 79¢ $160 $162 +$2 (+1%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $157 $159 +$1 (+1%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 75¢ 96¢ $119 $152 +$33 (+27%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? No 56¢ 98¢ $85 $150 +$65 (+76%)
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? No 92¢ 94¢ $130 $132 +$2 (+2%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? No 87¢ 88¢ $129 $130 +$1 (+1%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No 63¢ 66¢ $120 $126 +$6 (+5%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 96¢ 96¢ $116 $114 −$1 (-1%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? No 67¢ 84¢ $80 $100 +$20 (+25%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? Yes 16¢ 71¢ $22 $96 +$74 (+344%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 46¢ 42¢ $99 $92 −$7 (-7%)
Will Julia Letlow be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana? Yes 92¢ 95¢ $78 $81 +$3 (+4%)
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? Yes 97¢ 99¢ $79 $80 +$2 (+2%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No 47¢ 69¢ $48 $70 +$23 (+48%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No 76¢ 84¢ $60 $66 +$6 (+11%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? No 81¢ 70¢ $71 $62 −$10 (-14%)
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election? Yes 87¢ 80¢ $67 $61 −$6 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 14 $15 +$10 +69%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 14 $505 +$137 +27%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $276 +$105 +38%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 12 $3 $0 +14%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $341 −$106 -31%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $59 +$10 +18%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $643 −$489 -76%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $477 +$30 +6%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 10 $55 −$50 -91%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 10 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Ken Calvert advance from the CA-40 primary election? Jun 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-J Jun 09 $8 +$2 +28%
Will Nithya Raman finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 09 $501 +$20 +4%
Will Spencer Pratt finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 09 $10 +$3 +27%
Will Spencer Pratt finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los An Jun 09 $501 +$56 +11%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 09 $505 +$237 +47%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 09 $507 +$300 +59%
Will "The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act" Opening Weekend Box Of Jun 08 $14 $0 +0%
Will "The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act" Opening Weekend Box Of Jun 08 $1 $0 +0%
Will "The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act" Opening Weekend Box Of Jun 08 $51 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $136 −$51 -37%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $475 +$371 +78%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 07 $378 +$19 +5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 04 $162 +$88 +55%
Will Dusty Johnson and Larry Rhoden advance to the South Dakota Govern Jun 04 $2 $0 +0%
Will Toby Doeden and Dusty Johnson advance to the South Dakota Governo Jun 04 $2 $0 +0%
Will Toby Doeden and Larry Rhoden advance to the South Dakota Governor Jun 04 $4 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 20 Jun 04 $192 +$30 +16%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $502 +$50 +10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $82 −$82 -100%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30? Jun 02 $81 +$1 +1%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 02 $923 +$242 +26%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? Jun 02 $500 +$35 +7%
Will "Obsession" 3rd Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? Jun 02 $147 +$1 +0%
Will "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 7m? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 73m and 79m? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 6m and 7m Jun 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 2 Jun 01 $27 −$27 -100%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 61m? Jun 01 $126 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $4 +$1 +41%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $502 +$53 +10%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $53 +$17 +32%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? Jun 01 $14 −$14 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $951 +$235 +25%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,315 −$786 -60%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $11 −$11 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $126 +$56 +45%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 01 $300 +$6 +2%
Kash Patel out by May 31? Jun 01 $4 −$4 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $860 +$245 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 54¢ $33 20m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 30¢ $52 20m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 78¢ $160 27m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 85¢ $2 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 85¢ $5 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 78¢ $26 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 78¢ $15 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 96¢ $116 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $66 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $34 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $4 2h
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL Yes 39¢ $20 2h
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL Yes 39¢ $5 2h
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL No 99¢ $643 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 99¢ $3 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 33¢ $100 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 98¢ $2 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 33¢ $4 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 33¢ $63 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 33¢ $6 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 99¢ $9 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 33¢ $7 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 33¢ $4 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 33¢ $144 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 34¢ $340 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 36¢ $360 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 36¢ $360 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15,137.93 · official $15,137.03 (match) · 1990 history records