Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T16:02:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F8
0xf881…4058
crypto · 24 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$18 +4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$64 · open −$15
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$64
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses9 / 14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)23 / 24
History coverage1d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day94.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 23 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$64
7 days−$64
14 days−$64
30 days−$64
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Up 28¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-98%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Up 34¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Down 28¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Up 21¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Down 39¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Up 32¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Up 8¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $16 +$15 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $16 −$5 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$10 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$8 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $16 −$10 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $16 −$1 -8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$6 +118%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $14 −$5 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $11 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $31 −$17 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $21 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $47 −$35 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $21 +$26 +125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $36 −$15 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$15 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 14 $16 +$10 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$8 +148%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$16 +156%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$79
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 41¢ $14 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $17 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $14 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $16 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $17 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Down 14¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $7 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 30m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-20.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -12.1% -20.5% 39% 30% -27.3%
≤30d 23 -12.1% -20.5% 39% 30% -27.3%
≤90d 23 -12.1% -20.5% 39% 30% -27.3%
all 23 -12.1% -20.5% 39% 30% -27.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover94.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.5% 30% -27.3%
10% ← realistic here -28.1% 26% -34.2%
15% -35.0% 26% -40.6%
20% -41.4% 26% -46.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.27 · official $20.80 · 103 history records