Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T07:41:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf880…75dd world 44 markets active 2h ago coverage 491d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate44%19W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 66% +$1
other 24% +$3
politics 10% +$1
sports 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.9% -8.7% 56% 0% -8.1%
≤30d 35 -0.6% -10.1% 43% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 42 -0.6% -10.0% 45% 0% -9.4%
all 43 -2.9% -12.1% 44% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 0% -9.8%
10% -20.5% 0% -18.4%
15% -28.2% 0% -26.3%
20% -35.3% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

491d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses19 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)43 / 44
History coverage491d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 91¢ 91¢ $41 $41 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $35 +$3 +10%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $6 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $8 $0 -5%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 21 $38 +$1 +1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $20 $0 +1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $15 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 19 $37 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $74 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $28 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $37 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $53 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 15 $37 $0 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $2 $0 -10%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $22 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $150 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $10 $0 -3%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $37 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $2 $0 -14%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 09 $34 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $29 +$1 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $67 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $125 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $8 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $73 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $70 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $33 $0 +1%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $34 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $105 −$2 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $67 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 29 $34 −$1 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $7 $0 +1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $37 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 28 $32 +$2 +5%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $38 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $45 −$3 -7%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $10 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 21 $16 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 14 $185 +$1 +0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 13 $257 +$2 +1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 12 $274 +$3 +1%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 15, 2026? May 12 $248 +$1 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 11 $27 −$1 -4%
St. Francis (PA) vs. Le-Moyne Mar 03 $12 −$12 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $41 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 17h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 19h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 24h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 26h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 26h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $7 29h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $0 29h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $8 32h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $4 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $34 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $1 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $38 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $20 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $20 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $15 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $15 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $37 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $24 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $13 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $37 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $37 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $23 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $4 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $28 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $10 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $27 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $22 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $15 6d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $17 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.86 · official $40.86 (match) · 185 history records