Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:25:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf87e…d3c6 crypto 127 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$65 (+1%) realized +$65 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate72%91W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day39.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$80
7 days+$16
14 days−$115
30 days−$115
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$115
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 74 +5.9% -4.2% 73% 62% -8.6%
≤30d 127 +2.9% -6.9% 72% 61% -11.6%
≤90d 127 +2.9% -6.9% 72% 61% -11.6%
all 127 +2.9% -6.9% 72% 61% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.9% 61% -11.6%
10% ← realistic here -15.8% 50% -20.1%
15% -23.9% 36% -27.8%
20% -31.4% 22% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$42 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$65
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses91 / 36
Open positions0
Markets (closed)127 / 127
History coverage11d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day39.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 127 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 18 $31 +$10 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 18 $76 +$17 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$23 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 18 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$43 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 18 $36 +$16 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 17 $56 +$15 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$20 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $35 +$6 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $16 +$16 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$8 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 17 $40 +$8 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $15 +$8 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $15 +$7 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $35 +$10 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$4 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$9 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$11 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$6 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$6 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$9 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$9 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$9 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$9 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$3 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $53 −$53 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $41 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $25 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $26 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $25 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $25 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $48 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $69 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $25 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $25 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $26 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $25 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 488 history records