Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:18:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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F8 0xf87d…cf2b crypto 1002 markets active 1h ago coverage 103d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 102d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$552 (+6%) realized +$552 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate79%793W / 208L
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day21.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$10
14 days−$20
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$114
world 0% −$1
weather 0% −$1
other 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +1.3% -8.4% 79% 29% -13.2%
≤30d 324 +3.4% -6.4% 77% 40% -9.6%
≤90d 718 +0.1% -9.4% 75% 37% -14.0%
all 1001 +3.2% -6.6% 79% 39% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.6% 39% -8.5%
10% ← realistic here -15.6% 21% -17.3%
15% -23.7% 10% -25.2%
20% -31.2% 5% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$552
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses793 / 208
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1001 / 1002
History coverage103d ⚠
Avg bet$10
Trades / day21.5
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1001 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 11 $8 −$7 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 11 $14 −$3 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 11 $13 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$2 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 10 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 10 $13 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 10 $6 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 10 $6 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 10 $15 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 10 $6 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 10 $8 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 10 $8 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$3 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 10 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 10 $7 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 10 $7 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 10 $13 −$8 -57%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $6 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 10 $8 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 08 $3 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 08 $15 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 08 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 08 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 08 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 08 $13 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 08 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 08 $3 +$3 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Down 15¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 34¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 34¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Up 9¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.05 · official $5.05 (match) · 3500 history records