Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:49:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F8 0xf87c…3a3a sports 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 230d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$19 (+11%) realized +$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%4W / 2L
Drawdown86%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days+$23
14 days+$23
30 days+$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% −$19
other 41% +$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +8.9% -1.5% 67% 67% +15.5%
≤30d 3 +8.9% -1.5% 67% 67% +15.5%
≤90d 3 +8.9% -1.5% 67% 67% +15.5%
all 6 -6.4% -15.3% 67% 67% +1.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 67% +1.3%
10% -23.4% 33% -8.4%
15% -30.8% 33% -17.3%
20% -37.6% 17% -25.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 90% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$11 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.52 per $1 lost it wins $1.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

230d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses4 / 2
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage230d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Under 69¢ 68¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $11 −$6 -61%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $21 +$11 +51%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $52 +$19 +36%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Oct 31 $11 +$2 +21%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) Oct 31 $26 −$15 -58%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5) Oct 30 $7 +$1 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 69¢ $50 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 6h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $11 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $32 9h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $21 11h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $72 15h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $52 20h
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 - Game 2 Winner SELL Anyones Legend 100¢ $0 229d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) BUY Anyones Legend 55¢ $13 229d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 - Game 2 Winner SELL Anyones Legend 99¢ $13 229d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY Anyones Legend 82¢ $11 229d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) SELL Anyones Legend 43¢ $11 229d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) BUY Anyones Legend 52¢ $8 230d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5) SELL Top Esports 99¢ $8 230d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5) BUY Top Esports 87¢ $6 230d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) BUY Anyones Legend 52¢ $5 230d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5) BUY Top Esports 85¢ $1 230d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.64 · official $49.64 (match) · 17 history records