Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T17:44:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
F8 0xf87a…36ea sports 121 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$164 (-1%) realized +$931 · open −$1,095
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate61%73W / 47L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$209per market
Trades / day23.8pace
Fees−$53est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$405now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$740
7 days+$639
14 days+$522
30 days+$522
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 70% −$358
sports 20% +$90
other 9% −$236
world 1% −$68
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+3.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 92 +20.1% +8.7% 60% 43% -6.7%
≤30d 120 +14.1% +3.2% 61% 47% -7.5%
≤90d 120 +14.1% +3.2% 61% 47% -7.5%
all 120 +14.1% +3.2% 61% 47% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +3.2% 47% -7.5%
10% ← realistic here -6.7% 36% -16.4%
15% -15.7% 28% -24.5%
20% -24.0% 22% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +17% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$56 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$405
Realized+$931
Unrealized−$1,095
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses73 / 47
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$53
Open positions1
Markets (closed)120 / 121
History coverage11d
Avg bet$209
Trades / day23.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 120 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Up 98¢ 26¢ $1,500 $405 −$1,095 (-73%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 26 $1,311 +$176 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 26 $1,210 +$160 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 26 $1,103 +$43 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 26 $510 −$393 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 26 $1,407 +$94 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 26 $1,310 +$147 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 26 $163 −$163 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 26 $1,309 +$136 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 26 $1,006 +$85 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 26 $1,114 +$228 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 26 $903 +$46 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 26 $807 +$107 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 26 $300 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 26 $402 +$22 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 26 $609 +$162 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 26 $709 −$209 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 26 $305 −$38 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 26 $706 +$99 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 26 $501 +$18 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $581 +$12 +2%
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 26 $701 +$39 +6%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $59 −$59 -99%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $32 −$32 -100%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $26 −$26 -100%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $12 +$8 +67%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $2 −$2 -98%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $25 −$6 -25%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -90%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $8 +$12 +150%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $19 +$21 +113%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $24 −$20 -84%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 25 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: South Africa (-1.5) Jun 25 $1 +$3 +181%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $60 +$6 +11%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $19 +$22 +117%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $50 +$4 +8%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $21 +$19 +90%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $50 +$12 +24%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $26 +$24 +92%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 24 $30 −$6 -21%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 24 $2 +$2 +67%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -81%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $55 +$45 +83%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $19 +$11 +55%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $24 −$22 -94%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $20 −$3 -13%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $39 −$38 -98%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $8 +$12 +146%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1,502 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1,311 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1,210 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1,103 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Down 18¢ $117 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $510 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1,407 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1,310 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $163 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1,309 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1,114 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1,006 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $903 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $201 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $302 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $304 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $101 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $405.38 · official $588.95 · 336 history records