Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:31:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf879…617b other 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$77 (-18%) realized −$77 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate35%6W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit18%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% +$4
sports 7% −$26
crypto 6% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -11.6% -20.0% 35% 29% -11.1%
≤30d 17 -11.6% -20.0% 35% 29% -11.1%
≤90d 17 -11.6% -20.0% 35% 29% -11.1%
all 17 -11.6% -20.0% 35% 29% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.0% 29% -11.1%
10% -27.6% 29% -19.6%
15% -34.6% 24% -27.4%
20% -41.0% 18% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -62% → late +33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$12 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$77
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses6 / 11
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage6d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $31 +$39 +125%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $15 +$19 +124%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $102 −$37 -36%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $46 +$14 +30%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $46 $0 +1%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 $0 -2%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $13 −$12 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 +$16 +316%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $26 −$6 -23%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $33 −$24 -71%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $9 −$1 -8%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 −$2 -50%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +42%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $15 −$13 -90%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $28 −$14 -49%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $24 −$21 -88%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 33¢ $69 59m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 14¢ $31 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 29¢ $15 18h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 44¢ $15 18h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 30¢ $31 18h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 28¢ $31 18h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 27¢ $30 18h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $56 20h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 78¢ $59 23h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 25h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $46 26h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 50¢ $47 44h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $46 46h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 92¢ $20 47h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 93¢ $20 47h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 98¢ $21 2d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 58¢ $13 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 21¢ $19 2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 25¢ $8 4d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 40¢ $8 4d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $9 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 24¢ $9 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $25 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 64¢ $2 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 39 history records