Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:27:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf878…c978 world 48 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$34 (-2%) realized −$2 · open −$32
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate39%14W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day24.6pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$268now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 76% −$145
crypto 15% −$45
other 5% −$20
finance 4% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-33.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -26.4% -33.4% 39% 28% -19.9%
≤30d 36 -26.4% -33.4% 39% 28% -19.9%
≤90d 36 -26.4% -33.4% 39% 28% -19.9%
all 36 -26.4% -33.4% 39% 28% -19.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -33.4% 28% -19.9%
10% ← realistic here -39.8% 22% -27.6%
15% -45.6% 17% -34.6%
20% -50.9% 8% -41.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$14 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$268
Realized−$2
Unrealized−$32
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses14 / 22
Open positions12
Markets (closed)36 / 48
History coverage5d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day24.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 84¢ 92¢ $100 $110 +$10 (+10%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 62¢ 38¢ $55 $35 −$21 (-38%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? Yes 20¢ 14¢ $50 $34 −$16 (-33%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 72¢ 68¢ $26 $24 −$2 (-6%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 63¢ 62¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? No 14¢ 13¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-13%)
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? No 26¢ 26¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-4%)
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85% by June 30? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Yes 75¢ 72¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 18 $80 −$1 -1%
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $20 $0 -2%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $20 −$13 -63%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 17 $96 +$1 +1%
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? Jun 17 $103 +$1 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 16 $180 −$7 -4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 16 $30 +$1 +4%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $20 +$2 +11%
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $150 −$2 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $9 −$4 -44%
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? Jun 15 $24 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$17 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 Jun 15 $70 +$1 +2%
Will Waymo launch in Dallas by June 30 2026? Jun 14 $20 −$3 -16%
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $77-$84 in June? Jun 14 $25 −$8 -30%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 14 $15 −$13 -87%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $30 −$15 -49%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $40 −$32 -80%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $30 −$18 -59%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $20 −$17 -87%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $50 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$18 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$11 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$10 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 14 $36 −$33 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$20 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$4 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 29m
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY No 26¢ $7 30m
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 63¢ $20 31m
Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 33m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 13¢ $10 35m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 86¢ $53 36m
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 37m
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 75¢ $5 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 1h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 86¢ $79 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 83¢ $19 6h
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 38¢ $20 6h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 83¢ $31 6h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $7 6h
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85% by June 30? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 6h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $20 7h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL Yes 9¢ $49 17h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes 9¢ $48 21h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL No 93¢ $48 21h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY No 93¢ $48 21h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 77¢ $48 21h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 81¢ $50 23h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL No 19¢ $50 23h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 19¢ $50 23h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 81¢ $51 23h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $26 28h
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $3 28h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 57¢ $20 31h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 45h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 44¢ $15 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $267.82 · official $268.23 (match) · 134 history records