Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:45:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf877…b5b2 other 259 markets active 0h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$81 (-0%) realized −$81 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%18W / 240L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$215per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$21
14 days−$29
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$47
sports 22% −$18
politics 9% −$9
culture 7% −$8
crypto 7% −$7
economics 5% −$4
world 3% −$2
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 66 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 179 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 258 -0.1% -9.7% 7% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized−$81
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses18 / 240
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)258 / 259
History coverage133d
Avg bet$215
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 258 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 98¢ 98¢ $57 $57 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $235 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $58 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $364 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $270 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $560 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 14 $636 −$2 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $489 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $444 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $185 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $229 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $622 −$3 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $268 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $434 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $195 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $59 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $156 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $134 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $720 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $122 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $485 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $361 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $348 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $580 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 10 $204 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $504 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $357 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $224 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $381 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $484 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $283 −$1 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $308 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $194 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $488 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $422 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $213 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $304 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 06 $63 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $511 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $638 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $530 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $636 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $164 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 03 $611 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $594 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 01 $204 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? May 31 $301 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 30 $135 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $208 −$2 -1%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $468 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? May 28 $371 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $57 6m
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $57 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $57 2h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $57 7h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $58 9h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $58 10h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $58 12h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $58 13h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $58 15h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $58 16h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $58 17h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $58 20h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $58 21h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $58 23h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $58 24h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $58 38h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $58 40h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $58 41h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $58 42h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $58 43h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $58 45h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $58 2d
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $59 2d
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $59 2d
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $59 2d
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $59 2d
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $59 2d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $59 2d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $59 2d
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $59 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.17 · official $57.17 (match) · 1385 history records