Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:55:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F8 0xf876…1dee sports 137 markets active 1h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$9,656 (+10%) realized +$9,594 · open +$62
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate56%75W / 60L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$678per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$1,384est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$1,518now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8,056
7 days+$2,367
14 days+$12,543
30 days+$12,543
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% +$10,849
other 7% +$1,336
crypto 1% −$706
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-2.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 88 -0.6% -10.0% 48% 43% -5.8%
≤30d 132 +8.8% -1.6% 55% 50% +3.2%
≤90d 132 +8.8% -1.6% 55% 50% +3.2%
all 135 +7.9% -2.4% 56% 49% +1.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.4% 49% +1.9%
10% -11.7% 44% -7.9%
15% -20.3% 44% -16.8%
20% -28.1% 43% -24.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$849) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +12% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$604 vs −$565 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$1,518
Realized+$9,594
Unrealized+$62
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses75 / 60
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$1,384
Open positions2
Markets (closed)135 / 137
History coverage132d
Avg bet$678
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 135 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs Infinite 50¢ 52¢ $851 $885 +$34 (+4%)
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner T1 Academy 54¢ 56¢ $605 $633 +$28 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 54 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $710 +$573 +81%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $680 +$608 +89%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1,144 +$1,674 +146%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,134 +$883 +78%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $528 +$512 +97%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $408 +$842 +206%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $260 +$240 +92%
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag Jun 17 $530 −$530 -100%
Map Handicap: SPARTA (-1.5) vs Bebop (+1.5) Jun 17 $1,200 −$356 -30%
England leading at halftime? Jun 17 $305 −$300 -98%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 17 $678 −$671 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $608 −$596 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $598 −$591 -99%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $186 −$183 -98%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $708 +$36 +5%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $224 +$423 +188%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 17 $1,231 +$1,040 +84%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $203 −$200 -99%
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Jerome Kym Jun 17 $807 +$566 +70%
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group Jun 17 $734 −$132 -18%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $241 −$237 -98%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $346 −$340 -98%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $408 −$400 -98%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $665 −$659 -99%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $595 −$585 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $711 −$700 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $812 +$820 +101%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $739 +$594 +80%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $728 +$561 +77%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $814 +$1,186 +146%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 16 $1,036 +$1,577 +152%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $200 +$194 +97%
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) Jun 16 $718 +$975 +136%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $499 +$519 +104%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $414 −$414 -100%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $564 +$620 +110%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu Jun 16 $490 +$509 +104%
ITF Tokyo: Saki Tange vs Colin Sinclair Jun 16 $490 +$510 +104%
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros Jun 16 $520 −$510 -98%
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt Jun 15 $532 +$516 +97%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $546 −$536 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $152 +$166 +109%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $551 −$540 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $692 +$959 +139%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $567 −$560 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $935 −$916 -98%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 15 $353 −$346 -98%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lin Zhu vs Sinja Kraus Jun 15 $102 −$55 -54%
Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs Young Ninjas (+1.5) Jun 15 $715 −$90 -13%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,287 −$1,264 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 54¢ $46 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 54¢ $3 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 54¢ $3 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 54¢ $3 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 54¢ $3 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 54¢ $3 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 54¢ $3 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 54¢ $4 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 54¢ $4 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 54¢ $4 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 54¢ $3 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 54¢ $24 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 54¢ $3 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 54¢ $2 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 54¢ $3 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 54¢ $6 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 54¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Infinite 51¢ $26 1h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Infinite 51¢ $414 1h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Infinite 50¢ $424 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 54¢ $78 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 54¢ $12 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 54¢ $3 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 54¢ $402 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 54¢ $304 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 55¢ $405 2h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 52¢ $10 2h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 53¢ $32 2h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 52¢ $28 2h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 52¢ $609 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,517.80 · official $1,517.91 (match) · 912 history records