Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T00:49:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf875…37d2 sports 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$203 (-13%) realized −$188 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate43%18W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$86now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$22
14 days−$38
30 days−$375
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% −$117
other 26% −$166
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -21.0% -28.5% 29% 21% -16.0%
≤30d 37 -19.0% -26.7% 38% 35% -36.0%
≤90d 42 -5.1% -14.2% 43% 40% -26.4%
all 42 -5.1% -14.2% 43% 40% -26.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 40% -26.4%
10% -22.4% 38% -33.5%
15% -29.9% 36% -39.9%
20% -36.7% 36% -45.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$37 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$86
Realized−$188
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses18 / 24
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions3
Markets (closed)42 / 45
History coverage32d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 86¢ $76 $74 −$2 (-3%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Over 20¢ 9¢ $24 $11 −$13 (-55%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $31 −$30 -98%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $26 +$58 +225%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $29 −$29 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $24 +$59 +248%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 214.5 Jun 16 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $26 $0 +1%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $28 +$64 +232%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $17 +$3 +17%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $9 +$9 +95%
De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $10 +$12 +118%
1H Spread: Spurs (-1.5) Jun 11 $10 +$14 +133%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $30 −$30 -100%
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5 Jun 11 $10 +$10 +108%
Will Paderborn win on 2026-05-25? Jun 11 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $25 +$8 +33%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 2 Arsenal FC? Jun 09 $16 −$16 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $154 −$154 -100%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-22? May 27 $33 −$33 -100%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 26.5 May 27 $149 −$149 -100%
Will Middlesbrough FC win on 2026-05-23? May 25 $69 −$69 -100%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 24.5 May 25 $98 +$74 +75%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 24.5 May 23 $51 −$51 -100%
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 13.5 May 23 $51 +$68 +134%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: Odd/Even Score May 22 $51 +$49 +96%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: Team to Score First May 22 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Freiburg win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? May 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder: Team to Score First May 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-2.5) May 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 13.5 May 21 $51 +$42 +82%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: Team to Score First May 20 $26 +$25 +97%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 27.5 May 20 $26 +$24 +96%
Jeremy Doku: Anytime Goalscorer May 20 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $51 +$70 +137%
Eli Junior Kroupi: Anytime Goalscorer May 19 $10 +$27 +258%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 20¢ $25 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $77 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 43¢ $31 2h
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 30¢ $26 5h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 24¢ $26 5h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 0 Uruguay? BUY Yes 10¢ $6 4d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $26 4d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $24 4d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $26 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 214.5 BUY Over 34¢ $77 5d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 BUY Over 41¢ $15 6d
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $92 6d
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 29¢ $28 6d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $29 6d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 7d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 6¢ $6 7d
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 89¢ $19 7d
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 74¢ $17 7d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 7d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $18 7d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 BUY Over 50¢ $9 7d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 4¢ $6 8d
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5 BUY Yes 47¢ $10 9d
1H Spread: Spurs (-1.5) BUY Spurs 42¢ $10 9d
De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 3.5 BUY Yes 45¢ $10 9d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? BUY No 39¢ $30 9d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? BUY No 17¢ $3 10d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 38¢ $33 10d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 27¢ $25 10d
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 2 Arsenal FC? BUY Yes 8¢ $16 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $85.73 · official $85.73 (match) · 86 history records