Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T12:14:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf875…1d30 crypto 105 markets active 1h ago coverage 594d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$810 (-7%) realized −$810 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate74%77W / 27L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$107per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$114now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 28% $0
crypto 23% −$227
sports 22% −$425
other 15% −$88
tech 9% +$20
politics 2% −$91
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 31 -17.6% -25.5% 52% 3% -31.3%
all 104 -5.8% -14.8% 74% 15% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 15% -16.1%
10% -22.9% 7% -24.1%
15% -30.4% 5% -31.5%
20% -37.2% 4% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 79% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -3% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$70 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

594d coverage
Net worth$114
Realized−$810
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses77 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)104 / 105
History coverage594d
Avg bet$107
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 104 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $114 $114 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in May? Jun 25 $114 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $400 in May? May 25 $32 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $600 in May? May 25 $35 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 25 $47 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 05 $24 −$24 -100%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 05 $47 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? May 05 $1,242 +$19 +2%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 29 $40 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in April? Apr 27 $38 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? Apr 26 $40 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in April? Apr 26 $42 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? Apr 26 $134 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 15 $1,247 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? Apr 15 $70 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 15 $55 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 14 $40 $0 -0%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 13 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Bucks vs. Pistons Apr 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 13 $27 −$18 -65%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 05 $25 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 05 $30 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by March 31? Apr 05 $49 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Apr 05 $172 +$4 +2%
Timberwolves vs. Pelicans Mar 31 $9 −$9 -100%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Mar 31 $134 −$134 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? Mar 31 $26 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $130 in March? Mar 31 $28 $0 -0%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 31 $49 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $20 in March? Mar 29 $33 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $160 in March? Mar 29 $44 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 29 $23 +$3 +13%
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in February? Mar 12 $29 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in February? Mar 12 $41 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? Mar 12 $100 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026? Mar 12 $100 +$1 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Feb 16 $269 +$1 +0%
Celtics vs. Pacers Dec 27 $950 +$317 +33%
Grizzlies vs. Clippers Dec 19 $210 +$315 +150%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Nov Dec 02 $60 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? Nov 11 $59 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet less than 200 times September 5–12? Oct 14 $58 +$1 +2%
Will Elon tweet 215–229 times May 30–June 6? Jun 04 $57 +$1 +1%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 02 $56 +$1 +2%
Will Elon tweet 125–149 times April 11–18? Apr 25 $55 +$1 +2%
Will Elon tweet 150-159 times April 4 - 11? Apr 13 $51 +$4 +8%
Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 21-28? Mar 30 $229 +$3 +1%
Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 14-21? Mar 24 $222 +$6 +3%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Mar 19 $26 −$1 -2%
Will Elon tweet 275-299 times March 14-21? Mar 19 $191 +$6 +3%
Will Ethereum hit $3500 by February 28 2025? Mar 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $114 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $114 30d
Will Ethereum dip to $400 in May? SELL No 100¢ $32 30d
Will Ethereum dip to $600 in May? SELL No 100¢ $35 30d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $47 30d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $47 51d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $24 51d
Will Ethereum dip to $600 in May? BUY No 100¢ $35 51d
Will Ethereum dip to $400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $32 51d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on April SELL No 100¢ $40 57d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $51 59d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY No 100¢ $40 59d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY Yes 100¢ $47 59d
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in April? SELL No 100¢ $38 59d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,210 59d
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? SELL No 100¢ $40 59d
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in April? SELL No 100¢ $42 59d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? SELL No 100¢ $57 59d
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in April? BUY No 100¢ $42 65d
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $40 65d
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $38 65d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $57 65d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $1,071 70d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $1,247 70d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $1,247 70d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? SELL No 100¢ $70 70d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on SELL No 100¢ $55 70d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $40 72d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April SELL No 100¢ $40 72d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $70 72d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $113.94 · official $113.94 (match) · 223 history records