Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:59:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
F8 0xf874…cd5d politics 142 markets active 1h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$45 (-0%) realized −$45 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate7%10W / 131L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$275per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$37
7 days−$37
14 days−$38
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$49
politics 41% −$21
sports 8% +$8
tech 3% −$1
economics 2% −$1
crypto 1% −$1
culture 1% $0
world 1% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -50.1% -54.8% 0% 0% -44.5%
≤30d 14 -14.4% -22.6% 0% 0% -10.7%
≤90d 125 -4.3% -13.4% 4% 3% -9.8%
all 141 -2.6% -11.8% 7% 6% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 6% -9.7%
10% -20.3% 5% -18.3%
15% -28.0% 4% -26.2%
20% -35.0% 4% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$2 · ×8.49 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$45
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses10 / 131
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)141 / 142
History coverage116d
Avg bet$275
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 141 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $28 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $31 −$31 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $31 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 14 $45 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $25 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $336 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $345 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $26 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 07 $331 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $29 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $809 −$1 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 25 $759 −$1 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $238 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $250 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $664 −$1 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 19 $500 −$1 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 18 $240 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 16 $540 −$1 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $569 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $515 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 12 $212 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $283 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 11 $725 −$1 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $283 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $237 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $218 −$1 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 06 $287 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $234 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $230 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $494 −$1 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $276 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 03 $233 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $285 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $274 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 02 $415 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $204 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $501 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $503 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 01 $202 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $511 −$1 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 30 $286 $0 -0%
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 30 $211 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 29 $279 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $429 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $230 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $235 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 27 $285 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 26 $231 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $447 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $27 1h
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $28 6h
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $28 8h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $31 10h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 10h
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $31 23h
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $31 7d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $45 7d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $45 8d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $25 9d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $25 10d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $43 10d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $43 12d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $47 12d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $47 12d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $26 13d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $26 13d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $29 15d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $29 21d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $29 22d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $29 22d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $278 23d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $278 27d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL No 100¢ $273 27d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $273 29d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $238 29d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $238 30d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $50 30d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $50 31d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $250 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.99 · official $26.99 (match) · 402 history records