trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +5.4% | -4.6% | 100% | 0% | -4.6% |
| ≤30d | 3 | -20.3% | -27.9% | 67% | 33% | -9.7% |
| ≤90d | 17 | -14.5% | -22.7% | 65% | 24% | -18.2% |
| all | 26 | -8.9% | -17.6% | 62% | 19% | -9.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -17.6% | 19% | -9.4% |
| 10% | -25.4% | 12% | -18.1% |
| 15% | -32.7% | 4% | -26.0% |
| 20% | -39.3% | 0% | -33.2% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? | No | 68¢ | 66¢ | $30 | $29 | −$1 (-2%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will France win on 2026-06-22? | Jun 23 | $38 | +$2 | +5% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June | Jun 13 | $24 | +$7 | +30% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | May 25 | $20 | −$9 | -48% |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | May 16 | $23 | −$2 | -10% |
| Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? | May 13 | $19 | +$1 | +5% |
| Will Trump visit China by May 15? | May 06 | $40 | +$3 | +6% |
| Will Solana reach $100 in May? | May 06 | $24 | +$7 | +31% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | May 05 | $40 | −$40 | -100% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me | Apr 15 | $9 | −$2 | -22% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m | Apr 05 | $3 | −$1 | -40% |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? | Apr 02 | $23 | −$23 | -100% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | Apr 01 | $34 | +$5 | +14% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? | Apr 01 | $62 | $0 | +0% |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | Mar 31 | $6 | +$1 | +10% |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10? | Mar 30 | $16 | +$2 | +10% |
| Trump out as President by March 31? | Mar 29 | $71 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran leadership change by March 31? | Mar 25 | $45 | +$5 | +10% |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? | Mar 18 | $98 | −$12 | -12% |
| US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? | Feb 28 | $142 | +$5 | +3% |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | Feb 27 | $129 | −$6 | -5% |
| US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? | Feb 25 | $63 | +$2 | +3% |
| Nothing Ever Happens: MicroStrategy | Feb 22 | $162 | +$66 | +41% |
| US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? | Feb 01 | $45 | −$6 | -14% |
| Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 | Jan 30 | $123 | $0 | +0% |
| Venezuela election scheduled by January 31, 2026? | Jan 30 | $125 | +$1 | +1% |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | Jan 28 | $50 | $0 | -0% |