Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:37:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf870…7c32 sports 36 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (126 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$91 (+9%) realized +$92 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate52%17W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day126.0pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% −$65
other 37% +$143
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (126 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +5.8% -4.2% 52% 48% -2.5%
≤30d 33 +5.8% -4.2% 52% 48% -2.5%
≤90d 33 +5.8% -4.2% 52% 48% -2.5%
all 33 +5.8% -4.2% 52% 48% -2.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover126.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.2% 48% -2.5%
10% ← realistic here -13.4% 33% -11.8%
15% -21.8% 30% -20.3%
20% -29.4% 21% -28.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$25 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized+$92
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses17 / 16
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions3
Markets (closed)33 / 36
History coverage1d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day126.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner Team Resilience 53¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+89%)
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Dplus KIA Challengers 47¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 18 $29 +$14 +48%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 18 $16 −$9 -58%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $31 +$84 +275%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 +$27 +134%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $186 −$145 -78%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $10 +$5 +50%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $131 −$1 -1%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $25 −$12 -48%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $35 +$5 +15%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $14 +$2 +18%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $5 $0 +7%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$8 +84%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 17 $20 +$3 +16%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $90 +$240 +268%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 17 $5 +$1 +20%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $75 −$34 -46%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 17 $26 +$56 +219%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $20 +$29 +141%
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $90 −$52 -58%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $10 +$3 +34%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $6 +$5 +93%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $1 $0 +38%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $39 −$39 -100%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse Jun 17 $5 +$1 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 47¢ $1 26m
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Resilience 53¢ $1 29m
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 1h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 88¢ $3 6h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 92¢ $3 7h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY No 42¢ $10 8h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY No 43¢ $10 8h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 8h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 69¢ $10 8h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 8h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 8h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 70¢ $10 9h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 55¢ $10 9h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 62¢ $9 9h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 9h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 9h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 52¢ $10 9h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 78¢ $10 10h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 84¢ $10 10h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 93¢ $10 10h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 11h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 18¢ $10 11h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 20¢ $10 11h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 11h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 26¢ $6 11h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 24¢ $10 11h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 58¢ $10 11h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 60¢ $10 11h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 11h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 55¢ $9 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.83 · official $51.83 (match) · 160 history records