trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | +0.1% | -9.4% | 100% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤30d | 10 | -0.3% | -9.8% | 40% | 0% | -9.4% |
| ≤90d | 13 | +0.9% | -8.7% | 54% | 8% | -9.4% |
| all | 22 | -23.1% | -30.4% | 45% | 14% | -11.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -30.4% | 14% | -11.7% |
| 10% | -37.1% | 5% | -20.2% |
| 15% | -43.1% | 5% | -27.9% |
| 20% | -48.7% | 5% | -34.9% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | Yes | 94¢ | 94¢ | $316 | $316 | −$1 (-0%) |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | Yes | 93¢ | 94¢ | $58 | $58 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet | Jun 17 | $1,857 | +$1 | +0% |
| No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meetin | Jun 13 | $1,013 | +$1 | +0% |
| Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Jun 10 | $4 | $0 | -1% |
| Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? | Jun 10 | $631 | +$1 | +0% |
| Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? | Jun 08 | $10 | −$1 | -6% |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 08 | $7 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Jun 08 | $414 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Mohsen Araki be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Jun 08 | $5 | $0 | -0% |
| Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? | May 29 | $7 | $0 | -3% |
| Cavaliers vs. Knicks | May 22 | $30 | +$2 | +8% |
| MegaETH FDV above $500M one day after launch? | May 14 | $20 | $0 | +1% |
| Genius FDV above $300M one day after launch? | Apr 15 | $26 | $0 | +1% |
| Kings vs. Warriors | Apr 08 | $21 | +$3 | +12% |
| Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026? | Mar 11 | $50 | −$50 | -100% |
| Pistons vs. Spurs | Mar 10 | $12 | −$12 | -100% |
| Lakers vs. Warriors | Mar 02 | $24 | −$24 | -100% |
| Bradley Braves vs. Southern Illinois Salukis | Feb 18 | $92 | +$16 | +18% |
| Clippers vs. Bulls | Jan 26 | $12 | −$12 | -100% |
| Nuggets vs. Nets | Jan 10 | $29 | −$29 | -100% |
| Miami vs. Texas A&M | Dec 21 | $26 | −$26 | -100% |
| Knicks vs. Pacers | Dec 21 | $39 | +$22 | +56% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? | Dec 12 | $23 | +$2 | +8% |