Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:49:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf86c…559f sports 300 markets active 0h ago coverage 31d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$67 (+1%) realized +$95 · open −$28
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate48%144W / 155L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day38.4pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$98now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$581
7 days−$486
14 days−$490
30 days−$581
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% −$141
other 28% +$333
sports 23% −$255
weather 3% +$48
crypto 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 +4.2% -5.7% 32% 10% -39.4%
≤30d 297 -6.1% -15.1% 48% 34% -17.6%
≤90d 299 -5.8% -14.8% 48% 34% -9.5%
all 299 -5.8% -14.8% 48% 34% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.8% 34% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -23.0% 29% -18.1%
15% -30.4% 20% -26.1%
20% -37.2% 16% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$8 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$98
Realized+$95
Unrealized−$28
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses144 / 155
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)299 / 300
History coverage31d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day38.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 299 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 19? Yes 31¢ 24¢ $126 $98 −$28 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $141 −$141 -100%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $1 $0 -2%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 18 $10 −$1 -6%
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) Jun 18 $20 −$3 -15%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 18 $2 $0 -2%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 18 $1 $0 -1%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $1 $0 -1%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 $0 -13%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $1 $0 -7%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 18 $1 $0 -4%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 18 $1 $0 -2%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $1 $0 -2%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $1 $0 -1%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 18 $1 $0 -4%
Spread: New Zealand (-2.5) Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 $0 -6%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-2.5) Jun 18 $2 $0 -1%
Spread: Tunisia (-2.5) Jun 18 $2 $0 +0%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 177.5 Jun 18 $23 −$4 -16%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $254 −$30 -12%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $2 $0 -2%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 18 $4 $0 -7%
Spread: Curaçao (-1.5) Jun 18 $3 $0 +0%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 $0 -22%
Spread: IR Iran (-2.5) Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Spread: Qatar (-1.5) Jun 18 $1 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 18 $1 $0 -10%
Spread: Cabo Verde (-2.5) Jun 18 $1 $0 -0%
Spread: Panama (-2.5) Jun 18 $0 $0 -0%
Spread: DR Congo (-2.5) Jun 18 $0 $0 -0%
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 166.5 Jun 18 $19 −$2 -13%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Jun 18 $3 $0 -1%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 18 $13 −$1 -6%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2 +$1 +34%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 18 $2 $0 -0%
Spread: Paraguay (-2.5) Jun 18 $1 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $420 −$420 -100%
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) Jun 18 $1 $0 -2%
Spread: Jordan (-2.5) Jun 18 $1 $0 -1%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $1 $0 -2%
Spread: Korea Republic (-2.5) Jun 18 $1 $0 -0%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $1 $0 -1%
Spread: South Africa (-2.5) Jun 18 $1 $0 -1%
Spread: Uzbekistan (-1.5) Jun 18 $1 $0 -1%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1 +$1 +109%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $55 −$4 -7%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $292 +$23 +8%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $8 +$22 +280%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 31¢ $4 19m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 23m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 29m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 31¢ $11 29m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 31¢ $4 38m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 31¢ $13 59m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 31¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 31¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 31¢ $13 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 32¢ $66 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 94¢ $1 23h
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL France 52¢ $5 24h
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) SELL Uzbekistan 71¢ $17 24h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 88¢ $2 24h
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) SELL Netherlands 98¢ $1 24h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 97¢ $1 24h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 47¢ $1 24h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 72¢ $1 24h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? SELL No 86¢ $1 24h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) SELL Germany 94¢ $1 24h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 96¢ $1 24h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 97¢ $1 24h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 33¢ $1 24h
Spread: New Zealand (-2.5) SELL Egypt 99¢ $1 24h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? SELL No 77¢ $2 24h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-2.5) SELL Switzerland 99¢ $2 24h
Spread: Tunisia (-2.5) SELL Japan 99¢ $2 24h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 177.5 SELL Under 52¢ $9 24h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL Colombia 41¢ $211 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.07 · official $106.07 · 1457 history records