Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:07:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F8
0xf86c…ba99
other · 572 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$695 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$630 · open −$90
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,433
Realized−$630
Unrealized−$90
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses280 / 194
Est. fees paid−$70
Open positions160
Markets (closed)474 / 572
History coverage80d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day37.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%
Chart Positions 160 History 474 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$391
7 days−$476
14 days−$504
30 days−$532
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.25% or lower before 2027? No 90¢ 95¢ $67 $71 +$4 (+6%)
Probable FDV above $800M one day after launch? No 89¢ 93¢ $53 $56 +$3 (+5%)
Tabi FDV above $2B one day after launch? No 91¢ 92¢ $29 $30 +$0 (+2%)
Will Gold (GC) settle over $6,000 on the final trading day of June 2026? No 76¢ 99¢ $22 $29 +$7 (+31%)
Will Silver (SI) settle over $65 on the final trading day of June 2026? No 22¢ 48¢ $13 $28 +$15 (+119%)
Hurupay FDV above $200M one day after launch? No 91¢ 99¢ $24 $27 +$2 (+9%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 63¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 87¢ 87¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Ronaldo 39¢ 39¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 87¢ 86¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 85¢ 84¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Qatar be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 79¢ 78¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ivory Coast advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 78¢ 78¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? Yes 75¢ 74¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 86¢ 85¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8? Jun 12 $4 +$6 +138%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 12 $397 −$397 -100%
United States vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 Jun 07 $29 −$29 -100%
United States vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $58 −$58 -100%
United States vs. Germany: O/U 5.5 Jun 07 $10 −$10 -100%
United States vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $87 +$14 +16%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 07 $13 −$3 -21%
Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 02 $500 +$12 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $64 +$2 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 1400-1439 tweets in May 2026? Jun 01 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6AM ET Jun 01 $9 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 01 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $21 −$11 -53%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $67 +$7 +11%
Israel strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $2 +$9 +354%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET May 30 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Hyperliquid reach $66 by December 31, 2026? May 30 $4 +$6 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 30 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 30 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 29 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET May 29 $31 −$21 -70%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET May 28 $91 +$9 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET May 28 $61 +$5 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 5AM ET May 27 $92 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5AM ET May 27 $123 −$15 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET May 27 $61 +$7 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET May 27 $31 +$2 +7%
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 27 $10 $0 +2%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 27 $5 $0 +2%
Chisinau: Daniel Galan vs Alex Martinez May 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET May 26 $30 +$7 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET May 26 $92 −$10 -11%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET May 26 $30 +$6 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 5PM ET May 26 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5PM ET May 26 $91 +$7 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3PM ET May 26 $122 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET May 26 $183 +$15 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET May 26 $31 −$17 -56%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 3PM ET May 26 $153 +$5 +4%
Solana Up or Down - May 26, 3PM ET May 26 $61 −$11 -18%
XRP Up or Down - May 26, 3PM ET May 26 $93 −$15 -16%
Nexus FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 26 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET May 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by May 31? May 26 $12 −$12 -100%
Will SC Paderborn achieve promotion from Bundesliga 2 to the Bundeslig May 26 $167 −$167 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? May 24 $5 $0 +9%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by December 31? May 23 $87 +$2 +3%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May? May 23 $61 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET May 22 $237 +$22 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 30% −$398
crypto 25% +$217
sports 21% −$252
culture 14% −$494
world 7% +$72
politics 1% +$66
finance 1% +$41
tech 1% +$36
economics 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 87¢ $25 8m
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 83¢ $25 1h
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 66¢ $25 1h
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 86¢ $25 1h
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY Yes 35¢ $25 1h
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $25 1h
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $25 1h
Will Ivory Coast advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 78¢ $25 1h
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 85¢ $25 1h
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 87¢ $25 1h
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 86¢ $5 1h
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 86¢ $20 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 BUY Yes 66¢ $25 1h
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 70¢ $25 1h
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $25 1h
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 80¢ $25 1h
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 81¢ $25 1h
Will Qatar be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 79¢ $25 1h
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? BUY Yes 75¢ $25 1h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $25 1h
Will Panama finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group St BUY Yes 54¢ $25 1h
Will Haiti finish last in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta BUY Yes 81¢ $25 1h
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo BUY Ronaldo 39¢ $25 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $26 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $26 1h
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? BUY No 58¢ $3 29h
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? BUY No 58¢ $3 29h
United States vs. Germany: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 10¢ $10 5d
United States vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 28¢ $29 5d
United States vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 57¢ $58 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -38.2% -44.1% 29% 29% -81.7%
≤30d 109 +15.5% +4.5% 74% 34% -15.5%
≤90d 474 +4.1% -5.8% 59% 37% -12.0%
all 474 +4.1% -5.8% 59% 37% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover37.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.8% 37% -12.0%
10% ← realistic here -14.8% 30% -20.4%
15% -23.1% 23% -28.1%
20% -30.6% 18% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,432.53 · official $1,427.65 (match) · 3500 history records