Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T04:48:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F8
0xf86b…bd44
sports · 28 markets active 1h ago
1.5score
+$5 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$5 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
Net worth$17
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses6 / 12
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions10
Markets (closed)18 / 28
History coverage10d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 10 History 18 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$13
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Donna Vekic Katie Boulter 54¢ 54¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Set Handicap: Raducanu (-1.5) vs Rakhimova (+1.5) Raducanu 59¢ 59¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Yes 54¢ 54¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Switzerland 58¢ 58¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Ben Shelton 49¢ 50¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Germany 47¢ 47¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Scotland 36¢ 36¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Spain 32¢ 32¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex de Minaur Adrian Mannarino 21¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Flavio Cobolli 33¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Matteo Berrettini 68¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Felix Auger-Aliassime 46¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Flavio Cobolli: Total Sets O/U 4.5 Over 4.5 33¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Marin Cilic Jun 13 $2 $0 -8%
Libema Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 07 $2 $0 -9%
HSBC Championships: Karolina Pliskova vs McCartney Kessler Jun 07 $1 $0 -5%
Libema Open: Marin Cilic vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 07 $2 $0 -5%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 07 $2 $0 -7%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 07 $3 $0 -4%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Hanyu Guo vs Maddison Inglis Jun 07 $2 −$1 -56%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $10 −$10 -98%
Flavio Cobolli vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $25 +$15 +62%
Set Handicap: Andreeva (-1.5) vs Chwalinska (+1.5) Jun 06 $15 +$10 +66%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 05 $21 −$6 -28%
Jakub Mensik vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 05 $13 +$8 +65%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $5 +$8 +152%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $2 +$3 +113%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 03 $15 −$15 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $7 −$7 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 03 $2 +$3 +123%
Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Flavio Cobolli: Total Sets O/U 4.5 Jun 03 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 99% +$5
other 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Donna Vekic BUY Katie Boulter 54¢ $2 45m
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Marin Cilic SELL Daniil Medvedev 62¢ $2 51m
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 47¢ $1 52m
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 32¢ $1 52m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $2 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $2 1h
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 36¢ $1 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 58¢ $1 1h
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Donna Vekic BUY Katie Boulter 54¢ $2 1h
Set Handicap: Raducanu (-1.5) vs Rakhimova (+1.5) BUY Raducanu 59¢ $2 1h
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Ben Shelton 49¢ $1 1h
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex de Minaur BUY Adrian Mannarino 21¢ $1 1h
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Marin Cilic BUY Daniil Medvedev 66¢ $2 1h
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Donna Vekic BUY Katie Boulter 54¢ $1 1h
Libema Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Ajla Tomljanovic SELL Ajla Tomljanovic 49¢ $1 5d
HSBC Championships: Karolina Pliskova vs McCartney Kessler SELL Karolina Pliskova 51¢ $1 5d
Libema Open: Marin Cilic vs Denis Shapovalov SELL Marin Cilic 53¢ $2 5d
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez SELL Katie Boulter 45¢ $2 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 54¢ $3 5d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Hanyu Guo vs Maddison Inglis SELL Hanyu Guo 23¢ $1 5d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Hanyu Guo vs Maddison Inglis BUY Hanyu Guo 46¢ $1 5d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Hanyu Guo vs Maddison Inglis BUY Hanyu Guo 54¢ $1 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $3 5d
Libema Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Ajla Tomljanovic BUY Ajla Tomljanovic 52¢ $2 5d
HSBC Championships: Karolina Pliskova vs McCartney Kessler BUY Karolina Pliskova 52¢ $1 5d
Libema Open: Marin Cilic vs Denis Shapovalov BUY Marin Cilic 54¢ $2 5d
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez BUY Katie Boulter 47¢ $2 5d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 41¢ $7 5d
Flavio Cobolli vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 SELL Over 3.5 100¢ $37 5d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 24¢ $4 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -6.7% -15.5% 20% 20% +9.1%
≤30d 18 +3.2% -6.6% 33% 33% -6.3%
≤90d 18 +3.2% -6.6% 33% 33% -6.3%
all 18 +3.2% -6.6% 33% 33% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.6% 33% -6.3%
10% -15.6% 33% -15.3%
15% -23.7% 33% -23.4%
20% -31.2% 33% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.74 · official $16.74 (match) · 52 history records