Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:16:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
F8 0xf869…52a7 crypto 124 markets active 1h ago coverage 700d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3,376 (+6%) realized +$3,480 · open −$104
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate77%86W / 26L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$481per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$3,494now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$90
7 days+$131
14 days+$131
30 days+$442
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% +$2,166
other 12% +$269
politics 2% +$1,060
sports 0% −$76
world 0% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +3.5% -6.4% 90% 30% -5.3%
≤30d 14 +5.1% -4.9% 93% 29% -3.7%
≤90d 23 +5.2% -4.8% 96% 22% -3.9%
all 112 +0.8% -8.8% 77% 12% -3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 12% -3.9%
10% -17.5% 8% -13.1%
15% -25.5% 5% -21.5%
20% -32.8% 4% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$766) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$30 · ×1.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.51 per $1 lost it wins $5.51
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

700d coverage
Net worth$3,494
Realized+$3,480
Unrealized−$104
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses86 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions12
Markets (closed)112 / 124
History coverage700d
Avg bet$481
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 112 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 95¢ 100¢ $628 $657 +$30 (+5%)
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $645 $640 −$5 (-1%)
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 94¢ $624 $625 +$1 (+0%)
Will Colombia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 93¢ 100¢ $349 $375 +$26 (+8%)
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 92¢ 91¢ $371 $369 −$2 (-0%)
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 80¢ 82¢ $347 $357 +$10 (+3%)
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 96¢ 96¢ $141 $142 +$1 (+1%)
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 97¢ $133 $141 +$8 (+6%)
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 92¢ $93 $92 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 88¢ 26¢ $241 $73 −$168 (-70%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $16 $14 −$2 (-13%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $727 +$13 +2%
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $519 +$46 +9%
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $431 +$32 +7%
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 22 $400 +$15 +4%
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 22 $32 −$16 -50%
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 21 $192 +$8 +4%
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $338 +$11 +3%
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 20 $5 +$1 +28%
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 20 $100 +$14 +14%
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $44 +$6 +14%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 01 $1,405 +$106 +8%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? Jun 01 $398 +$5 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 01 $624 +$154 +25%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 01 $1,644 +$46 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in April? May 01 $252 +$3 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? May 01 $1,148 +$28 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? May 01 $2,109 +$155 +7%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? Apr 19 $227 +$4 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? Apr 01 $183 +$14 +8%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March? Apr 01 $704 +$20 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in March? Apr 01 $779 +$20 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? Apr 01 $766 +$115 +15%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? Apr 01 $998 +$77 +8%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 21 $66 −$17 -26%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 21 $149 −$42 -28%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Mar 18 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? Mar 07 $146 +$3 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 04 $183 −$6 -3%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? Mar 01 $97 +$2 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in February? Mar 01 $146 +$4 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in February? Mar 01 $220 +$5 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in February? Mar 01 $246 +$4 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in February? Mar 01 $442 +$8 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in February? Mar 01 $391 +$9 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? Mar 01 $434 +$11 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? Mar 01 $1,340 +$59 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in January? Feb 01 $572 +$12 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in January? Feb 01 $444 +$6 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in January? Feb 01 $872 +$27 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January? Feb 01 $726 +$24 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in January? Feb 01 $1,235 +$65 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in January? Jan 20 $246 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Jan 01 $6 +$1 +14%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 01 $166 +$9 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 01 $173 +$7 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 01 $463 +$17 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 01 $515 +$10 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 01 $1,399 +$118 +8%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 01 $922 +$38 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $111K in August? Dec 23 $16 −$16 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY No 83¢ $32 1h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 94¢ $108 1h
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 96¢ $43 1h
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 96¢ $42 1h
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 100¢ $225 1h
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 92¢ $88 1h
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 92¢ $46 1h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 94¢ $94 1h
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 96¢ $34 1h
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 96¢ $10 1h
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 100¢ $125 1h
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 96¢ $12 1h
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 92¢ $16 1h
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 93¢ $93 1h
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 91¢ $49 1h
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 95¢ $143 1h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 94¢ $94 1h
Will Colombia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 98¢ $123 23h
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 91¢ $45 23h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 94¢ $132 23h
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY No 83¢ $167 23h
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $235 23h
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 91¢ $26 23h
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 91¢ $9 23h
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 94¢ $38 23h
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 95¢ $29 47h
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $23 47h
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 89¢ $45 47h
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 93¢ $28 47h
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 100¢ $124 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,493.57 · official $3,492.23 (match) · 1284 history records