Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:39:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
F8 0xf868…d113 other 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$86 (+24%) realized +$85 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate69%9W / 4L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit21%portable
Net worth$89now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% +$18
sports 23% +$65
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)+12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +24.7% +12.8% 69% 54% +18.4%
≤30d 13 +24.7% +12.8% 69% 54% +18.4%
≤90d 13 +24.7% +12.8% 69% 54% +18.4%
all 13 +24.7% +12.8% 69% 54% +18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.8% 54% +18.4%
10% +2.0% 46% +7.1%
15% -7.8% 46% -3.3%
20% -16.9% 31% -12.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 69% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +31% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt +31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +50% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$6 · ×2.08 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.67 per $1 lost it wins $4.67
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$89
Realized+$85
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses9 / 4
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage4d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit21%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $88 $89 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $67 +$52 +78%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $46 −$10 -22%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $41 +$5 +12%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $38 +$3 +8%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $26 +$12 +46%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $6 +$20 +325%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $8 +$4 +52%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 +$4 +70%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $7 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 74¢ $89 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $55 11h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 54¢ $30 11h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 51¢ $64 11h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $37 12h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 66¢ $36 12h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $46 15h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 97¢ $46 16h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $41 22h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 98¢ $41 36h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $38 38h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $38 38h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $26 45h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $6 3d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $7 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 3d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $8 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 96¢ $7 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $88.90 · official $88.90 (match) · 26 history records