Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:16:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F8
0xf863…5bc1
politics · 49 markets active 241d ago
1.5score
+$82,434 +90%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$82,434 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP politics specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$0
Realized+$82,434
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses12 / 37
Whale WR (big bets)23%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)49 / 49
Avg bet$1,878
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit86%
Chart Positions 0 History 49 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Biden finish his term? No 5¢ 0¢ $2,500 $0 −$2,500 (-100%)
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? No 11¢ 0¢ $109 $0 −$109 (-100%)
Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during speech on October 14? No 68¢ 0¢ $131 $0 −$131 (-100%)
Will Powell say "Trump" during speech on October 14? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $95 $0 −$95 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Commanders (-5.5) Oct 16 $50 +$50 +100%
Bears vs. Commanders: O/U 49.5 Oct 16 $78 +$72 +92%
Will Powell say "Inflation" 25+ times during speech on October 14? Oct 16 $131 +$392 +300%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 13 $109 −$109 -100%
Will Powell say "Trump" during speech on October 14? Oct 13 $95 −$95 -100%
Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during speech on Oct Oct 13 $131 −$131 -100%
Will Biden finish his term? Dec 20 $17,077 −$14,077 -82%
Matt Gaetz confirmed as Attorney General? Dec 06 $441 −$441 -100%
Trump formally nominates Matt Gaetz for AG? Dec 06 $1,316 −$1,316 -100%
Will a Republican win New York Presidential Election? Nov 20 $676 −$39 -6%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 20 $1,726 −$651 -38%
Will Gavin Newsom win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electi Nov 20 $925 −$925 -100%
Will any other Democratic Politician win the 2024 US Presidential Elec Nov 20 $2,639 −$2,639 -100%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 20 $6,248 −$6,248 -100%
Will the Director of FBI be fired/resign? Sep 11 $95 −$95 -100%
JD Vance replaced as Republican VP nominee? Sep 11 $350 −$350 -100%
Biden resigns from presidency by August 31? Sep 11 $817 −$817 -100%
Will Kamala say "democracy" at debate? Sep 11 $1,510 +$290 +19%
Will Kamala Harris say "Unburdened" during DNC speech? Aug 30 $259 −$259 -100%
Will Kamala Harris say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during DNC speech? Aug 30 $190 −$190 -100%
Will Kamala Harris say "Inflation" 3 or more times during DNC speech? Aug 30 $1,372 −$1,372 -100%
RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August? Aug 30 $5 +$10 +190%
Will Biden get a name wrong during DNC speech? Aug 22 $152 −$152 -100%
Will someone else win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? Aug 17 $3,668 −$3,668 -100%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? Aug 17 $3,625 −$3,335 -92%
Kamala president by Friday? Aug 17 $206 −$206 -100%
Fed rate cut by July 31? Aug 17 $255 −$255 -100%
Will Biden resign during his speech today? Aug 17 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Biden say "Health" during dropout speech? Jul 30 $299 +$116 +39%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? Jul 23 $3,275 −$275 -8%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? Jul 22 $569 −$47 -8%
Trump and Biden both win nomination? Jul 22 $1,665 +$10,969 +659%
Biden drops out of presidential race? Jul 21 $24,315 +$108,466 +446%
Will Joe Biden win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? Jul 19 $1,100 +$7,580 +689%
Will Tom Cotton win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? Jul 17 $498 −$498 -100%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? Jul 17 $88 −$88 -100%
Will Tim Scott win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? Jul 17 $2,076 −$2,076 -100%
GPT-5 announced in Q2 2024? Jul 02 $126 −$126 -100%
Diddy arrested before July? Jul 02 $172 −$172 -100%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson? Jun 30 $3,281 −$227 -7%
Will a Republican win the popular vote and the Presidency? Jun 18 $2,900 +$250 +9%
McGregor vs. Chandler canceled? Jun 16 $79 +$322 +410%
Biden wins the Popular Vote? Jun 05 $2,099 +$1 +0%
Will Trump sue 'The Apprentice' in May? Jun 02 $64 −$64 -100%
Will Israel halt Rafah operation in May? Jun 02 $65 −$65 -100%
Will Trump lead Biden by 2.0 or more in RCP on May 31? Jun 02 $43 −$43 -100%
Beyonce drops music in May? Jun 02 $29 −$29 -100%
The Weekend drops music in May? Jun 02 $40 −$40 -100%
Was Caitlyn Jenner hacked? May 31 $4,992 −$4,863 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 86% +$89,313
other 11% −$5,482
sports 2% −$536
economics 1% −$481
crypto 0% −$190
tech 0% −$126
world 0% −$65
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bears vs. Commanders: O/U 49.5 BUY Under 52¢ $78 241d
Spread: Commanders (-5.5) BUY Bears 50¢ $50 241d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? BUY No 11¢ $109 241d
Will Powell say "Trump" during speech on October 14? BUY Yes 15¢ $95 241d
Will Powell say "Inflation" 25+ times during speech on October 14? BUY No 25¢ $131 241d
Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during speech on Oct BUY No 68¢ $131 241d
Will Biden finish his term? BUY No 5¢ $2,500 539d
Will Biden finish his term? SELL No 6¢ $3,000 550d
Matt Gaetz confirmed as Attorney General? BUY Yes 29¢ $441 569d
Trump formally nominates Matt Gaetz for AG? BUY Yes 74¢ $1,316 569d
Will Kamala say "democracy" at debate? BUY Yes 84¢ $1,510 639d
RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 657d
Will Biden finish his term? BUY No 17¢ $3,356 658d
Will Kamala Harris say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during DNC speech? BUY Yes 4¢ $190 658d
Will Kamala Harris say "Unburdened" during DNC speech? BUY Yes 13¢ $259 658d
Will Kamala Harris say "Inflation" 3 or more times during DNC speech? BUY Yes 14¢ $1,372 658d
Will Biden get a name wrong during DNC speech? BUY Yes 32¢ $152 661d
Biden resigns from presidency by August 31? BUY Yes 3¢ $817 661d
Will Biden say "Health" during dropout speech? BUY Yes 72¢ $299 687d
Will the Director of FBI be fired/resign? BUY Yes 7¢ $95 687d
JD Vance replaced as Republican VP nominee? BUY Yes 14¢ $350 687d
Kamala president by Friday? BUY Yes 8¢ $206 687d
Will someone else win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $338 687d
Will any other Democratic Politician win the 2024 US Presidential Elec BUY Yes 1¢ $369 688d
Will Biden resign during his speech today? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 688d
Will Biden finish his term? BUY No 37¢ $1,846 688d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 0¢ $90 688d
Will any other Democratic Politician win the 2024 US Presidential Elec BUY Yes 1¢ $212 688d
Will Biden finish his term? BUY No 46¢ $137 689d
Will Biden finish his term? BUY No 46¢ $2,163 689d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 49 -6.2% -15.1% 24% 20% +100.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 20% +100.3%
10% -23.3% 18% +81.1%
15% -30.7% 18% +63.6%
20% -37.5% 16% +47.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 336 history records