Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T10:19:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
F8 0xf861…aa20 politics 9 markets active 17d ago coverage 54d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$22,435 (+239%) realized +$22,435 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +88% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +63% what you keep after slip
Net edge+63%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate33%3W / 6L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$1,044per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 54d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 84% +$23,703
world 16% −$1,466
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)+69.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 8 +98.4% +79.5% 25% 25% +230.0%
≤90d 9 +87.7% +69.8% 33% 22% +204.7%
all 9 +87.7% +69.8% 33% 22% +204.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +69.8% 22% +204.7%
10% +53.6% 22% +175.5%
15% +38.7% 11% +148.9%
20% +25.1% 11% +124.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 99% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +237% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +88% · $-wt +237% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
8.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$9,135 vs −$861 · ×10.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.3 per $1 lost it wins $5.3
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$22,435
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses3 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage54d
Avg bet$1,044
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 04 $1,021 +$304 +30%
Will Huh Tae-jung win the 2026 Daejeon mayoral election? Jun 04 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Kim Jin-tae win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election? Jun 04 $478 −$478 -100%
Will Lee Jang-woo win the 2026 Daejeon mayoral election? Jun 04 $479 −$479 -100%
Will Yoo Jeong-bok win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? Jun 04 $202 −$202 -100%
Will Kim Tae-heum win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial e Jun 04 $987 −$987 -100%
Will Park Heong-joon win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? Jun 04 $3,202 −$3,003 -94%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $2,004 +$27,080 +1351%
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el May 05 $999 +$21 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL Yes 100¢ $19,277 17d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL Yes 100¢ $2,776 17d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL Yes 100¢ $28 17d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL Yes 100¢ $7,003 17d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes $503 17d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes $495 18d
Will Park Heong-joon win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? BUY Yes 16¢ $395 18d
Will Park Heong-joon win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? BUY Yes 16¢ $68 18d
Will Park Heong-joon win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 18d
Will Park Heong-joon win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? BUY Yes 16¢ $77 18d
Will Park Heong-joon win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 18d
Will Park Heong-joon win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? BUY Yes 16¢ $24 18d
Will Park Heong-joon win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 18d
Will Park Heong-joon win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? BUY Yes 16¢ $24 18d
Will Park Heong-joon win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 18d
Will Park Heong-joon win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? BUY Yes 15¢ $150 18d
Will Park Heong-joon win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? BUY Yes 15¢ $75 18d
Will Park Heong-joon win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? BUY Yes 15¢ $20 18d
Will Park Heong-joon win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? BUY Yes 15¢ $22 18d
Will Lee Jang-woo win the 2026 Daejeon mayoral election? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 26d
Will Lee Jang-woo win the 2026 Daejeon mayoral election? BUY Yes 17¢ $40 26d
Will Lee Jang-woo win the 2026 Daejeon mayoral election? BUY Yes 17¢ $167 26d
Will Huh Tae-jung win the 2026 Daejeon mayoral election? BUY No 12¢ $19 26d
Will Lee Jang-woo win the 2026 Daejeon mayoral election? BUY Yes 13¢ $24 26d
Will Lee Jang-woo win the 2026 Daejeon mayoral election? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 26d
Will Lee Jang-woo win the 2026 Daejeon mayoral election? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 26d
Will Lee Jang-woo win the 2026 Daejeon mayoral election? BUY Yes 13¢ $0 26d
Will Lee Jang-woo win the 2026 Daejeon mayoral election? BUY Yes 13¢ $13 26d
Will Lee Jang-woo win the 2026 Daejeon mayoral election? BUY Yes 12¢ $179 26d
Will Park Heong-joon win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? BUY Yes 24¢ $6 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 131 history records