Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:16:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F8
0xf85d…5331
crypto · 106 markets active 12h ago
0.0score
−$965 -11%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,025 · open +$79
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$230
Realized−$1,025
Unrealized+$79
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses50 / 165
Open positions4
Markets (closed)215 / 106
Avg bet$82
Trades / day46.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 4 History 215 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$999
7 days−$999
14 days−$999
30 days−$1,183
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $95 $167 +$71 (+75%)
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+8%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $7 $10 +$3 (+50%)
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+29%)
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 on March 17? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on March 22? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 24, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Up 84¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on March 24? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 24? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Down 68¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 23, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Up 15¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Down 7¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 24, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Down 23¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 24, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Up 29¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on March 22? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 24, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Down 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Down 13¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Down 43¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 on March 17? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on March 22? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 24, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on March 24? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 24? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 23, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 24, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 24, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on March 22? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 24, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 12PM ET Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $60,000 on March 26? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 24, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on March 25? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 28, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 24, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 23, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 23, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 28, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Miami Open: James Duckworth vs Roberto Bautista Agut Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Miami Open: Paula Badosa vs Aliaksandra Sasnovich Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Toronto Maple Leafs win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 7AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 7AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
UIC Flames vs. California Golden Bears Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Rangers vs. Blue Jackets Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 26? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on March 17? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 75% +$62
economics 20% +$51
politics 5% +$4
culture 1% −$87
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $22 11h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $4 11h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $2 11h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $0 11h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $0 12h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $0 12h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $20 12h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 0¢ $85 12h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $0 12h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $0 12h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $0 12h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $0 12h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $0 12h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $0 12h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $0 12h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $0 12h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $0 12h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $0 12h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $29 12h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $54 18h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $23 18h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $0 18h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $0 18h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $7 18h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $25 43h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 0¢ $20 2d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $20 2d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-43.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 114 -64.9% -68.3% 4% 4% -83.2%
≤30d 119 -63.8% -67.2% 3% 3% -71.7%
≤90d 215 -37.5% -43.4% 23% 8% -21.0%
all 215 -37.5% -43.4% 23% 8% -21.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover46.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -43.4% 8% -21.0%
10% ← realistic here -48.8% 5% -28.5%
15% -53.8% 5% -35.4%
20% -58.3% 4% -41.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $230.48 · official $230.47 (match) · 3500 history records