Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:08:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf85c…406e sports 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$53 (-24%) realized −$63 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%8W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$31
14 days−$58
30 days−$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 43% +$26
politics 43% −$79
other 14% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +20.8% +9.3% 67% 67% +26.6%
≤30d 14 +4.8% -5.2% 57% 57% -38.0%
≤90d 14 +4.8% -5.2% 57% 57% -38.0%
all 14 +4.8% -5.2% 57% 57% -38.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.2% 57% -38.0%
10% -14.3% 57% -43.9%
15% -22.6% 57% -49.3%
20% -30.2% 57% -54.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 42% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$17 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$63
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses8 / 6
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage11d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 1.5 Over 78¢ 100¢ $37 $47 +$10 (+28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $5 −$5 -92%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $20 +$12 +60%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $4 +$6 +146%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$7 +70%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $6 +$4 +65%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $6 +$4 +67%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$5 +93%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $5 +$4 +76%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $7 +$4 +62%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 12 $95 −$79 -83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $37 1h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5 SELL Over 5¢ $0 5h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $5 6h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $4 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $20 2d
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $5 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 SELL Over 2¢ $0 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $4 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 2d
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 BUY Over 59¢ $6 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 60¢ $6 3d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 0.5 BUY Over 56¢ $5 4d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 BUY Over 61¢ $7 7d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 7d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 2¢ $16 7d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 13¢ $95 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.41 · official $47.41 (match) · 26 history records