Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:42:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
F8 0xf85c…daba crypto 20 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$127 (+33%) realized +$130 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate53%10W / 9L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day8.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 78% +$51
sports 14% +$77
other 8% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +25.0% +13.1% 53% 47% +23.8%
≤30d 19 +25.0% +13.1% 53% 47% +23.8%
≤90d 19 +25.0% +13.1% 53% 47% +23.8%
all 19 +25.0% +13.1% 53% 47% +23.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +13.1% 47% +23.8%
10% +2.3% 42% +11.9%
15% -7.6% 37% +1.1%
20% -16.6% 37% -8.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 55% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +37% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt +37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +39% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$10 · ×2.16 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.4 per $1 lost it wins $2.4
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized+$130
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses10 / 9
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)19 / 20
History coverage4d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day8.7
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Down 62¢ 56¢ $25 $22 −$3 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$13 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$45 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$25 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$15 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 21 $37 +$7 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 21 $50 +$2 +4%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$81 +786%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $18 +$12 +64%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 +$20 +98%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $26 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $26 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $71 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $50 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $26 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $25 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $41 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $26 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $39 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Up 17¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $26 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $11 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $52 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $25 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $25 8h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 17h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 17h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 17h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 60¢ $18 19h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 21h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $15 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $29 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $11 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.38 · official $17.54 · 36 history records